Receiver operating characteristic

接收机工作特性
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:确定哪些非侵入性感染指标能更好地预测宫颈环扎术后感染。以及应密切监测CC感染指标后的天数。
    方法:回顾性研究,单中心研究纳入了2021年1月至2022年12月的619例单胎妊娠患者.根据医生对CC后感染的判断,将患者分为感染组和未感染组。注册信息包括患者特征,宫颈机能不全病史,CC胎龄,手术方法(麦当劳/Shirodkar),CC的目的,妊娠中期流产/早产,感染史或危险因素,CC后第1、3、5和7天的感染指数。应用倾向评分匹配(PSM)来减少患者特征偏差。C反应蛋白(CRP)的统计学分析白细胞(WBC),中性粒细胞计数(NEU),中性粒细胞计数百分比(NEU_P),白细胞介素-6(IL-6),和降钙素原(PCT)在感染组与未感染组相比,采用卡方检验和t检验。受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线用于进一步评估CRP的诊断价值,PCT,CRP-PCT联合应用。
    结果:在纳入的619名患者中,206名患者使用PSM进行匹配并随后进行评估。CC后第1天和第3天的PCT值在两组间差异均有统计学意义(P<0.01,P<0.05)。感染组第1天的CRP水平明显高于未感染组(P<0.05)。第3天,与未感染组相比,感染组CRP平均值显著升高(P<0.05)。IL-6、WBC、NEU,和NEU_P没有产生临床显着结果。CRP的ROC曲线下面积,PCT,第1天和第3天的CRP-PCT均低于0.7。在预防性CC组中,在d1时获得的CRP和CRP-PCT的AUC值高于0.7,表明诊断准确性中等.
    结论:对于CC手术后的女性,特别是预防目的,从CC后第1天到第3天,血清CRP和PCT水平升高可能预示着潜在的术后感染,保证密切监测。
    OBJECTIVE: To identify which non-invasive infection indicators could better predict post-cervical cerclage (CC) infections, and on which days after CC infection indicators should be closely monitored.
    METHODS: The retrospective, single-center study included 619 single-pregnancy patients from January 2021 to December 2022. Patients were categorized into infected and uninfected groups based on physicians\' judgments of post-CC infections. Registered information included patient characteristics, cervical insufficiency history, gestational age at CC, surgical method (McDonald/Shirodkar), purpose of CC, mid-pregnancy miscarriage/preterm birth, infection history or risk factors, and infection indices on days 1, 3, 5, and 7 after CC. Propensity score matching (PSM) was applied to reduce patient characteristic bias. Statistical analysis of C-reactive protein (CRP), white blood cell (WBC), neutrophil count (NEU), percentage of neutrophil count (NEU_P), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and procalcitonin (PCT) in the infected group compared with the uninfected group was performed using chi-square tests and t-tests. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to further assess the diagnostic value of CRP, PCT, and CRP-PCT in combination.
    RESULTS: Among the 619 included patients, 206 patients were matched using PSM and subsequently assessed. PCT values on day 1 and day 3 after CC exhibited significant differences between the two groups in two statistical ways (P < 0.01, P < 0.05). The CRP levels on day 1 were significantly higher in the infected group compared to the uninfected group in two statistical ways (P < 0.05). On day 3, the mean CRP value was significantly elevated in the infected group compared to the uninfected group (P < 0.05). Analyses of IL-6, WBC, NEU, and NEU_P did not yield clinically significant results. The area under the ROC curves for CRP, PCT, and CRP-PCT on day 1 and day 3 were all below 0.7. In the preventive CC group, the AUC values of CRP and CRP-PCT obtained on d1 were found to be higher than 0.7, indicating moderate diagnostic accuracy.
    CONCLUSIONS: For women after CC surgery, especially of preventive aim, increased serum CRP and PCT levels from post-CC day 1 to day 3 may signal a potential postoperative infection, warranting close monitoring.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:探讨跟腱断裂与高尿酸血症的相关性。同时验证ATR的已知危险因素。
    方法:对488名受试者进行了回顾性审查(182名跟腱断裂,306控制脚踝扭伤)。列出并比较了人口统计学变量和破裂的危险因素。比较基线数据和相关指标,通过构建二元Logistic回归模型分析ATR的危险因素。
    结果:单因素logistic分析显示,吸烟,和高尿酸血症是ATR发生的危险因素(OR=1.65,95CI1.13~2.42,P=0.01;OR=1.47,95CI1.00~2.24,P<0.05;OR=2.85,95CI1.84~4.42,P<0.01)。多因素分析表明,BMI≥25kg/m2,吸烟,高尿酸血症是ATR发生的独立危险因素(OR=1.66,95CI1.11~2.49,P=0.01;OR=2.15,95CI1.28~3.60,P<0.01;OR=3.06,95CI1.92~4.89,P<0.01)。在血液生化指标中,总胆固醇(TC)和尿酸(UA)是ATR发生的独立危险因素(OR=1.54,95%CI1.12~2.12,P=0.01;OR=1.01,95%CI1.01~1.01,P<0.01)。
    结论:我们的研究证实,与以前的结果一样,BMI较高,吸烟,总胆固醇是ATR的危险因素,高尿酸血症可能有助于ATR的发展,血液生化中TC和UA的辅助检测可能有助于预测ATR的风险。
    OBJECTIVE: To study the correlation between achilles tendon rupture (ATR) and hyperuricemia, also verify the known risk factors for ATR.
    METHODS: A retrospective review of 488 subjects was performed (182 with Achilles tendon rupture, 306 controls with ankle sprains). Demographic variables and risk factors for rupture were tabulated and compared. The baseline data and related indicators were compared, and the risk factors of ATR were analyzed by constructing a binary logistic regression model.
    RESULTS: Univariate logistic analysis showed that BMI, smoking, and hyperuricemia were risk factors for the development of ATR (OR = 1.65, 95%CI 1.13-2.42, P = 0.01; OR = 1.47, 95%CI 1.00-2.24, P < 0.05; OR = 2.85, 95%CI 1.84-4.42, P < 0.01). Multifactorial analysis showed that BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2, smoking, and hyperuricemia were independent risk factors for the development of ATR (OR = 1.66, 95%CI 1.11-2.49, P = 0.01; OR = 2.15, 95%CI 1.28-3.60, P < 0.01; OR = 3.06, 95%CI 1.92-4.89, P < 0.01). Among the blood biochemical indicators, total cholesterol (TC) and uric acid (UA) were independent risk factors for the occurrence of ATR (OR = 1.54, 95% CI 1.12-2.12, P = 0.01; OR = 1.01, 95% CI 1.01-1.01, P < 0.01).
    CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirmed that, as in previous results, higher BMI, smoking, and total cholesterol are risk factors for ATR, Hyperuricemia may contribute to the development of ATR, and adjunctive tests for TC and UA in the blood biochemistry may be helpful in predicting the risk of ATR.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    该研究的目的是使用土地变化建模器(LCM)调查CMIP6预测下的土地利用变化动态。应用全局灵敏度分析(GSA)技术来量化单个参数和参数组合的灵敏度。评估了基准期(2006-2016年)的土地利用和土地覆盖(LULC)过渡,模型性能准确率为80%。接收器工作特性(ROC)分析表明,该模型在除建筑用地以外的所有LULC类别中都表现良好。SSP245情景下的预测描绘了农业的区域范围,森林,雪,到本世纪中叶(2045年),冰川将减少。然而,草地和贫瘠土地面积将从基线期增加。在SSP585情景下也预测了具有更高幅度的类似变化模式。CMIP6强迫指数考虑了社会经济影响,LCM预测了贫瘠土地的扩张,这可能归因于研究区域冰冻圈的变化。
    The aim of the study was to investigate the land use change dynamics under CMIP6 projections using Land Change Modeler (LCM). The Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) techniques was applied to quantify the sensitivity of single parameter and combination of parameters. Land use and land cover (LULC) transitions of the baseline period (2006-2016) was assessed with a model performance accuracy of 80%. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis shows that the model has performed well for all the LULC classes except builtup land. Prediction under the SSP245 scenario depicts that areal extent of agricultural, forest, and snow, and glacier will decrease by the mid-century (2045). However, the grassland and barren land area will increase from the baseline period. A similar change pattern with a higher magnitude has also been predicted under SSP585 scenario. The CMIP6 forcing index considers socio-economic effects and LCM predicted an expansion in barren land which may be attributed to changes in cryosphere in the studied area.
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  • 文章类型: Comparative Study
    OBJECTIVE: In comparative systematic reviews of diagnostic accuracy, inconsistencies between direct and indirect comparisons may lead to bias. We investigated whether using individual patient data (IPD) can adjust for this form of bias.
    METHODS: We included IPD of 3 ovarian reserve tests from 32 studies. Inconsistency was defined as a statistically significant difference in relative accuracy or different comparative results between the direct and indirect evidence. We adjusted for the effect of threshold and reference standard, as well as for patient-specific variables.
    RESULTS: Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) and follicle stimulation hormone (FSH) differed significantly in sensitivity (-0.1563, P = 0.04). AMH and antral follicle count (AFC) differed significantly in sensitivity (0.1465, P < 0.01). AMH and AFC differed significantly in specificity (-0.0607, P = 0.02). The area under the curve (AUC) differed significantly between AFC and FSH (0.0948, P < 0.01) in the direct comparison but not (0.0678, P = 0.09) in the indirect comparison. The AUCs of AFC and AMH differed significantly (-0.0830, P < 0.01) in the indirect comparison but not (-0.0176, P = 0.29) in the direct comparison. These differences remained after adjusting for indirectness.
    CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of comparative accuracy obtained through indirect comparisons are not always consistent with those obtained through direct comparisons. Using IPD to adjust for indirectness did not successfully remove the bias in this case study.
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