Prognosis model

预后模型
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:肝癌是世界上最恶性的肝脏疾病之一,5年生存率低。镇痛药通常用于治疗肝癌中普遍存在的疼痛。镇痛目标(ATs)在肝癌中的表达变更及临床意义还未被深刻懂得。
    目的:本研究的目的是阐明ATs基因在肝癌中的表达模式及其临床意义。通过对转录组数据和临床参数的综合分析,建立与ATs基因相关的预后模型,并且对ATs敏感的药物信息被挖掘。
    方法:该研究主要利用来自癌症基因组图谱(TCGA)数据库的肝癌患者的转录组数据和临床信息。这些数据用于分析ATs的表达,进行生存分析,基因集变异分析(GSVA),免疫细胞浸润分析,建立预后模型,并进行其他生物信息学分析。此外,来自国际癌症基因组联盟(ICGC)的肝癌患者的数据被用来验证模型的准确性.此外,使用比较毒理基因组学数据库(CTD)的数据评估了止痛药对预后模型中关键基因的影响.
    结果:该研究调查了肝癌中58个ATs基因与正常组织的差异表达。根据ATs表达对患者进行分层,揭示不同的生存结果。功能富集分析突出了纺锤体组织的区别,中心体,和纺锤体微管功能。预后建模确定低TP53表达是保护性的,而升高的CCNA2、NEU1和HTR2C水平构成了风险。常用镇痛药,包括对乙酰氨基酚等,被发现影响这些基因的表达。这些发现为肝癌的潜在治疗策略提供了见解,并阐明了其进展的分子机制。
    结论:对与ATs相关的基因特征的综合分析提示其作为肝细胞癌患者预后预测因子的潜力。这些发现不仅为癌症治疗提供了见解,而且为开发镇痛药适应症提供了新的途径。
    BACKGROUND: Liver cancer is one of the most malignant liver diseases in the world, and the 5-year survival rate of such patients is low. Analgesics are often used to cure pain prevalent in liver cancer. The expression changes and clinical significance of the analgesic targets (ATs) in liver cancer have not been deeply understood.
    OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to clarify the expression pattern of ATs gene in liver cancer and its clinical significance. Through the comprehensive analysis of transcriptome data and clinical parameters, the prognosis model related to ATs gene is established, and the drug information sensitive to ATs is mined.
    METHODS: The study primarily utilized transcriptomic data and clinical information from liver cancer patients sourced from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. These data were employed to analyze the expression of ATs, conduct survival analysis, gene set variation analysis (GSVA), immune cell infiltration analysis, establish a prognostic model, and perform other bioinformatic analyses. Additionally, data from liver cancer patients in the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) were utilized to validate the accuracy of the model. Furthermore, the impact of analgesics on key genes in the prognostic model was assessed using data from the Comparative Toxicogenomics Database (CTD).
    RESULTS: The study investigated the differential expression of 58 ATs genes in liver cancer compared to normal tissues. Patients were stratified based on ATs expression, revealing varied survival outcomes. Functional enrichment analysis highlighted distinctions in spindle organization, centrosome, and spindle microtubule functions. Prognostic modeling identified low TP53 expression as protective, while elevated CCNA2, NEU1, and HTR2C levels posed risks. Commonly used analgesics, including acetaminophen and others, were found to influence the expression of these genes. These findings provide insights into potential therapeutic strategies for liver cancer and shed light on the molecular mechanisms underlying its progression.
    CONCLUSIONS: The collective analysis of gene signatures associated with ATs suggests their potential as prognostic predictors in hepatocellular carcinoma patients. These findings not only offer insights into cancer therapy but also provide novel avenues for the development of indications for analgesics.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:早产是新生儿发病和死亡的主要原因,特别是在低资源环境中。如果对高危妊娠实施早期干预措施,大多数早产都可以预防。根据容易获得的预测因子开发早产的预后风险评分可以支持卫生专业人员作为其决策的简单临床工具。因此,该研究旨在开发和验证在DebreMarkos综合专科医院进行了产前检查的孕妇早产的预后风险评分模型,埃塞俄比亚。
    方法:对1,132名孕妇进行了回顾性随访研究。客户图表是使用简单的随机抽样技术选择的。使用在KoboToolbox应用程序中准备的结构化清单提取数据,并将其导出到STATA版本14和R版本4.2.2以进行数据管理和分析。进行了逐步向后多变量分析。基于二元Logistic模型,建立了简化的风险预测模型,并通过鉴别力和校准来评估模型的性能。通过自举评估模型的内部有效性。使用决策曲线分析来确定模型的临床影响。
    结果:早产发生率为10.9%。开发的风险评分模型由六个预测因子组成,这些预测因子保留在简化的多变量逻辑回归中,包括年龄<20岁,产前护理开始晚,意外怀孕,最近的妊娠并发症,血红蛋白<11mg/dl,多党,总分17分。模型的鉴别力为0.931,校正检验p>0.05。将风险分类为低或高的最佳界限为4。在这个切点,灵敏度,特异性和准确性为91.0%,82.1%,83.1%,分别。它得到了内部验证,乐观度为0.003。发现该模型具有临床益处。
    结论:开发的风险评分具有出色的辨别性能和临床益处。它可以在医疗服务提供者的临床环境中用于早期检测,及时决策,提高护理质量。
    BACKGROUND: Prematurity is the leading cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality, specifically in low-resource settings. The majority of prematurity can be prevented if early interventions are implemented for high-risk pregnancies. Developing a prognosis risk score for preterm birth based on easily available predictors could support health professionals as a simple clinical tool in their decision-making. Therefore, the study aims to develop and validate a prognosis risk score model for preterm birth among pregnant women who had antenatal care visit at Debre Markos Comprehensive and Specialized Hospital, Ethiopia.
    METHODS: A retrospective follow-up study was conducted among a total of 1,132 pregnant women. Client charts were selected using a simple random sampling technique. Data were extracted using structured checklist prepared in the Kobo Toolbox application and exported to STATA version 14 and R version 4.2.2 for data management and analysis. Stepwise backward multivariable analysis was done. A simplified risk prediction model was developed based on a binary logistic model, and the model\'s performance was assessed by discrimination power and calibration. The internal validity of the model was evaluated by bootstrapping. Decision Curve Analysis was used to determine the clinical impact of the model.
    RESULTS: The incidence of preterm birth was 10.9%. The developed risk score model comprised of six predictors that remained in the reduced multivariable logistic regression, including age < 20, late initiation of antenatal care, unplanned pregnancy, recent pregnancy complications, hemoglobin < 11 mg/dl, and multiparty, for a total score of 17. The discriminatory power of the model was 0.931, and the calibration test was p > 0.05. The optimal cut-off for classifying risks as low or high was 4. At this cut point, the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy is 91.0%, 82.1%, and 83.1%, respectively. It was internally validated and has an optimism of 0.003. The model was found to have clinical benefit.
    CONCLUSIONS: The developed risk-score has excellent discrimination performance and clinical benefit. It can be used in the clinical settings by healthcare providers for early detection, timely decision making, and improving care quality.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    COVID-19正在广泛传播,大流行严重威胁着全世界的公共卫生。尚未报道对有效的SARS-CoV-2测试的最佳采样类型和时间进行综合研究。我们收集了237例COVID-19患者的临床信息和55项生化指标的值,内蒙古37例非COVID-19肺炎患者和131例健康人作为对照。此外,使用口咽拭子动态检测SARS-CoV-2的结果,咽拭子,收集了197例COVID-19患者的粪便。粪便标本中SARS-CoV-2RNA呈阳性,约三分之一的COVID-19患者存在。在疾病晚期,粪便中SARS-CoV-2RNA的阳性检出率明显高于口咽和鼻咽拭子(P<0.05),在疾病的早期,情况并非如此。血LDH水平差异有统计学意义,CRP,血小板计数,嗜中性粒细胞计数,白细胞数,COVID-19和非COVID-19肺炎患者的淋巴细胞计数。最后,我们建立并比较了5种机器学习模型,根据发病时的生化指标和人口学特征预测COVID-19患者的预后.最佳模型在10倍交叉验证中获得0.853的曲线下面积。
    COVID-19 is spreading widely, and the pandemic is seriously threatening public health throughout the world. A comprehensive study on the optimal sampling types and timing for an efficient SARS-CoV-2 test has not been reported. We collected clinical information and the values of 55 biochemical indices for 237 COVID-19 patients, with 37 matched non-COVID-19 pneumonia patients and 131 healthy people in Inner Mongolia as control. In addition, the results of dynamic detection of SARS-CoV-2 using oropharynx swab, pharynx swab, and feces were collected from 197 COVID-19 patients. SARS-CoV-2 RNA positive in feces specimen was present in approximately one-third of COVID-19 patients. The positive detection rate of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in feces was significantly higher than both in the oropharynx and nasopharynx swab (P < 0.05) in the late period of the disease, which is not the case in the early period of the disease. There were statistically significant differences in the levels of blood LDH, CRP, platelet count, neutrophilic granulocyte count, white blood cell number, and lymphocyte count between COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 pneumonia patients. Finally, we developed and compared five machine-learning models to predict the prognosis of COVID-19 patients based on biochemical indices at disease onset and demographic characteristics. The best model achieved an area under the curve of 0.853 in the 10-fold cross-validation.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    UNASSIGNED: A proportional hazard model was applied to develop a large-scale prognostic model and nomogram incorporating clinicopathological characteristics, histological type, tumor differentiation grade, and tumor deposit count to provide clinicians and patients diagnosed with colon cancer liver metastases (CLM) a more comprehensive and practical outcome measure.
    UNASSIGNED: Using the Transparent Reporting of multivariable prediction models for individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines, this study identified 14,697 patients diagnosed with CLM from 1975 to 2017 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 21 registry database. Patients were divided into a modeling group (n=9800), an internal validation group (n=4897) using computerized randomization. An independent external validation cohort (n=60) was obtained. Univariable and multivariate Cox analyses were performed to identify prognostic predictors for overall survival (OS). Subsequently, the nomogram was constructed, and the verification was undertaken by receiver operating curves (AUC) and calibration curves.
    UNASSIGNED: Histological type, tumor differentiation grade, and tumor deposit count were independent prognostic predictors for CLM. The nomogram consisted of age, sex, primary site, T category, N category, metastasis of bone, brain or lung, surgery, and chemotherapy. The model achieved excellent prediction power on both internal (mean AUC=0.811) and external validation (mean AUC=0.727), respectively, which were significantly higher than the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM system.
    UNASSIGNED: This study proposes a prognostic nomogram for predicting 1- and 2-year survival based on histopathological and population-based data of CLM patients developed using TRIPOD guidelines. Compared with the TNM stage, our nomogram has better consistency and calibration for predicting the OS of CLM patients.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    UNASSIGNED: Machine learning (ML) techniques have emerged as a promising tool to predict risk and make decisions in different medical domains. We aimed to compare the predictive performance of machine learning-based methods for 4-year risk of metabolic syndrome in adults with the previous model using logistic regression.
    UNASSIGNED: This was a retrospective cohort study that employed a temporal validation strategy. Three popular ML techniques were selected to build the prognostic models. These techniques were artificial neural networks, classification and regression tree, and support vector machine. The logistic regression algorithm and ML techniques used the same five predictors. Discrimination, calibration, Brier score, and decision curve analysis were compared for model performance.
    UNASSIGNED: Discrimination was above 0.7 for all models except classification and regression tree model in internal validation, while the logistic regression model showed the highest discrimination in external validation (0.782) and the smallest discrimination differences. The logistic regression model had the best calibration performance, and ANN also showed satisfactory calibration in internal validation and external validation. For overall performance, logistic regression had the smallest Brier score differences in internal validation and external validation, and it also had the largest net benefit in external validation.
    UNASSIGNED: Overall, this study indicated that the logistic regression model performed as well as the flexible ML-based prediction models at internal validation, while the logistic regression model had the best performance at external validation. For clinical use, when the performance of the logistic regression model is similar to ML-based prediction models, the simplest and more interpretable model should be chosen.
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