背景：非结核性分枝杆菌肺病（NTM-PD）的临床病程各不相同，观察等待管理策略适用于一部分患者。了解疾病进展和进展的风险因素对于决定适当的随访策略至关重要。
目标：NTM-PD进展率是多少，
方法：2011年7月1日至2022年12月31日纳入前瞻性观察性队列研究的NTM-PD患者纳入本分析.临床,细菌,实验室,和影像学数据在纳入时收集,然后在随访期间定期收集.NTM-PD进展定义为治疗的开始或临床医生的治疗意向。计算进展速率并分析进展的预测因子。
结果：在477名患者中，NTM-PD在中位5.4年的随访中在192名患者中进展。NTM-PD进展的发生率为每100人年11.0例（95％置信区间[CI]9.5-12.7）。在1年内出现疾病进展的患者比例为21.4%，3年的33.8%，5年为43.3%。最终的多变量分析模型确定了女性性别(调整后的风险比[aHR]1.69，95%CI1.19-2.39)，红细胞沉降率升高（aHR1.79，95%CI1.31-2.43），1秒内预测用力呼气量百分比(AHR0.89，95%CI0.82-0.96)，和空腔的存在(aHR2.78，95%CI2.03-3.80)作为进展的预测因子。
结论：大约一半的NTM-PD患者在超过5年的观察期内经历了进展。有进展危险因素的患者应密切观察。
背景：ClinicalTrials.gov；编号。：NCT01616745；URL：www。
结果：政府。
BACKGROUND: The clinical course of nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary disease (NTM-PD) is varied, and a watchful waiting management strategy is appropriate for a subset of patients. Understanding disease progression and risk factors for progression is essential for deciding on an appropriate follow-up strategy.
OBJECTIVE: What is the rate of NTM-PD progression, and what are the predictors of progression?
METHODS: Patients with NTM-PD who were enrolled in a prospective observational cohort
study between July 1, 2011, and December 31, 2022, were included in this analysis. Clinical, bacterial, laboratory, and radiographic data were collected at enrollment and then regularly during follow-up. NTM-PD progression was defined as either the initiation of treatment or the clinician\'s intention to treat. The rate of progression was calculated and the predictors for progression were analyzed.
RESULTS: Of the 477 patients enrolled, NTM-PD progressed in 192 patients over a median follow-up of 5.4 years. The incidence of NTM-PD progression was 11.0 cases per 100 person-years (95% CI, 9.5-12.7 cases per 100 person-years). The proportion of patients experiencing disease progression was 21.4% at 1 year, 33.8% at 3 years, and 43.3% at 5 years. The final multivariable analysis model identified female sex (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.69; 95% CI, 1.19-2.39), elevated erythrocyte sedimentation rate (aHR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.31-2.43), FEV1 % predicted (aHR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.82-0.96), and the presence of a cavity (aHR, 2.78; 95% CI, 2.03-3.80) as predictors of progression.
CONCLUSIONS: About half of patients with NTM-PD experienced progression during an observation period of > 5 years. Patients with risk factors for progression should be observed closely.
BACKGROUND: ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT01616745; URL: www.
RESULTS: gov.
