越来越多的证据表明，地球气候正在发生深刻的变化，影响着全球的生物多样性。这就迫切需要就物种将如何应对制定强有力的预测，以便为保护策略提供信息，并允许管理者相应地调整缓解措施。虽然已经开始出现关于所谓的慢快连续体极端物种如何应对气候变化的预测，缺乏对所有人口统计学特征对种群动态贡献相对相等的物种的实证研究。然而，预计气候变化将在整个生命周期中对它们产生强烈影响。我们建立了一个21年的综合种群模型，以描述法国岩part（Alectorisgraeca）的种群动态，并检验了9个天气协变量对人口统计参数的影响。正如预测的那样，年存活率和繁殖成功率都受到天气协变量的影响。在接下来的繁殖季节，冬季积雪较厚与存活率低和育苗小有关。随着冬季中间温度和融雪时间的增加，育苗的大小更高，与繁殖期温度呈正相关，但与最冷两周的温度和繁殖期的降水呈负相关。生存率与冬季气温呈正相关,但对繁殖期降水不利。大规模指数表明，寒冷和潮湿的冬季在接下来的繁殖季节与小育苗有关，但存活率高。由于气候变化而导致的天气条件的预期变化可能会对岩石part的人口统计学特征产生积极和消极影响，这取决于特征和受影响的天气变量。因此，未来的人口动态将取决于这些不同影响的程度。我们的研究表明，很难对种群动态受生存和繁殖力影响的物种如何应对气候变化做出强有力的预测。
There is growing evidence that the Earth\'s climate is undergoing profound changes that are affecting biodiversity worldwide. This gives rise to the pressing need to develop robust predictions on how species will respond in order to inform conservation strategies and allow managers to adapt mitigation measures accordingly. While predictions have begun to emerge on how species at the extremes of the so-called slow-fast continuum might respond to climate change, empirical studies for species for which all demographic traits contribute relatively equally to population dynamics are lacking. Yet, climate change is expected to strongly affect them throughout their entire lifecycle. We built a 21-year integrated population model to characterize the population dynamics of the rock partridge (Alectoris graeca) in France, and tested the influence of nine weather covariates on demographic parameters. As predicted, both annual survival and breeding success were affected by weather covariates. Thick snow cover during winter was associated with low survival and small brood size the following breeding season. Brood size was higher with intermediate winter temperatures and snowmelt timing, positively correlated to breeding period temperature, but negatively correlated to temperature during the coldest fortnight and precipitation during the breeding period. Survival was positively correlated to winter temperature, but negatively to breeding period precipitation. Large-scale indices indicated that cold and wet winters were associated with small brood size the following breeding season but with high survival. Expected changes of weather conditions due to climate change are likely to impact demographic traits of the rock partridge both positively and negatively depending on the traits and on the affected weather variables. Future population dynamics will thus depend on the magnitude of these different impacts. Our study illustrates the difficulty to make strong predictions about how species with a population dynamic influenced by both survival and fecundity will respond to climate change.
