Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) is a specific strategy for combating deforestation and forest degradation to alleviate the effects of climate change. In this study, the potential greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction resulting from the implementation of a REDD project is estimated. Changes in forest cover throughout the years 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2010, 2015, and 2020 were analyzed using time-series Landsat imagery (TM, ETM + , and OLI) and a random forest algorithm. Multilayer perceptron neural networks were used to model the transition potential of the forest cover, which were then predicted via Markov chain analysis. The change detection analysis revealed two discernible patterns in forest cover dynamics. Between 1985 and 2000, a notable decrease in forest cover was seen, whereas from 2000 to 2020, it significantly increased. The results suggested that the absence of REDD implementation would result in the deforestation of approximately 199,569 hectares of forest cover between 2020 and 2050, leading to the release of 1,995,695 tCO2e of emissions into the atmosphere. However, with the implementation of REDD, these emissions would be reduced to 405,512 tCO2e, effectively preventing the release of 1,590,183 tCO2e of emissions into the upper atmosphere. This study demonstrates that the implementation of REDD projects can be an effective strategy for reducing GHG emissions and mitigating climate change in the Hyrcanian forests.

Forest conversion and conservation in rural settings are linked to both social and biophysical drivers. However, the joint analysis of these drivers presents methodological challenges. To address this problem, we propose a novel methodology to explore the relationship between livelihood heterogeneity and land use change at the community level. It combines the concept of archetype with the accounting scheme of MUlti-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism to define and quantify the characteristics of livelihood typologies in socioeconomic (time use, financial flows) and ecological terms (land use, agricultural inputs, soil degradation). Conservation trade-offs of potential policies are explored through \"what if\" scenarios assuming changes in off-farm opportunities, population growth, and conservation/farming subsidies. The approach is tested with a case study of the community of San Isidro, in Chiapas, Mexico. We conclude that the concept of livelihood typologies is useful to inform the debate over conservation prospects in rural environments.
UNASSIGNED: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10668-023-02965-z.

Worldwide, water utilities and other water users increasingly seek to finance watershed protection and restoration in order to maintain or enhance water quality and quantity important for drinking water supply and other human use. Hydrologic studies which characterize the relative effectiveness of watershed management activities in terms of metrics important to water users are greatly needed to guide prioritization. To address this need, we worked with a local water utility in Hawai\'i to develop a novel framework for prioritizing investments in native forest protection and restoration for groundwater recharge and applied it in the utility\'s priority aquifers and recharge areas. Specifically we combined land cover and water balance modeling to quantify the 50-year cumulative recharge benefits of: 1) protection of native forest from conversion to non-native forest, and 2) restoration of native forest in non-native grasslands. The highest priority areas (80th percentile of benefits) for native forest protection are projected to prevent the loss of over 48,600 m3 per hectare of recharge over 50 years. Incorporating land cover change modeling (versus assuming all areas are equally susceptible to invasion) shifts prioritization towards low to mid-elevation mesic forest areas at the highest risk of invasion by invasive canopy species as well as to high elevation, cloud forest areas at high risk of conversion to non-native grassland or bare ground. We also find that, in the highest priority areas with substantial fog interception, native forest restoration is projected to increase recharge by over 88,900 m3 per hectare over 50 years, but that decreases in recharge occur in areas with low fog interception. This study provides a framework for prioritizing investments in forest protection and restoration for groundwater recharge in a way that incorporates both the threat of conversion as well as changes in hydrologic fluxes. The framework and results can be utilized by current managers and updated as new ecohydrological data become available. The results also provide broad insights on the links between watershed management and groundwater recharge, particularly on islands and in other regions where species invasions threaten source watersheds and where groundwater is a primary water source.