细颗粒物污染(PM2.5)被广泛认为是过早死亡和寿命损失(YLL)的首要风险因素。然而,关于每日空气质量改善对预期寿命的影响的证据很少,尤其是在中东,如伊朗。这项研究旨在调查德黑兰2012-2016年达到每日PM2.5标准的浓度对预期寿命的潜在益处。伊朗。
我们从德黑兰收集了每日非意外死亡率以及空气污染物和天气状况的数据,伊朗,2012-2016年。采用准泊松或高斯时间序列回归来拟合环境PM2.5与死亡率或YLL之间的关联。通过假设每日PM2.5浓度达到世界卫生组织空气质量准则(WHOAQG)2005年(25μg/m3)和2021年(15μg/m3),估计了预期寿命(PGLE)和归因分数(AF)的潜在收益。
在研究期间,德黑兰共有221,231人非意外死亡,导致360万美元。环境PM2.5的平均浓度为34.7μg/m3(标准偏差:15.3μg/m3)。对于PM2.5浓度的4天移动平均值(滞后03天)上升10μg/m3,非意外死亡率和YLL增加了1.12%(95%置信区间:0.60,1.65)和20.73(7.08,34.39)人年,分别。在18-64岁的男性和年轻人中观察到相对较高的影响。我们估计,如果PM2.5的日浓度分别达到2005年和2021年的WHOAQG,则有可能避免39830[AF=1.1%]和74284[AF=2.1%]年。这相当于每个死者的预期寿命可能增加0.18(0.06,0.30)和0.34(0.11,0.56)年。在进行敏感性分析时,与PM2.5相关的PGLE估计值在很大程度上是稳健的。
我们的研究结果表明,短期暴露于PM2.5与非意外年历和死亡率增加有关。如果颗粒物空气污染水平保持在更严格的标准下,可以实现延长的预期寿命。
Fine particulate matter pollution (PM2.5) is widely considered to be a top-ranked risk factor for premature mortality and years of life lost (YLL). However, evidence regarding the effect of daily air quality improvement on life expectancy is scarce, especially in the Middle East such as Iran. This study aimed to investigate the potential benefits in life expectancy at concentrations meeting the daily PM2.5 standards during 2012-2016 in Tehran, Iran.
We collected daily non-accidental mortality and data on air pollutants and weather conditions from Tehran, Iran, 2012-2016. A quasi-Poisson or Gaussian time-series regression was employed to fit the associations between ambient PM2.5 and mortality or YLL. Potential gains in life expectancy (PGLE) and attributable fraction (AF) were estimated by assuming that daily PM2.5 concentrations attained the World Health Organization air quality
guidelines (WHO AQG) 2005 (25 μg/m3) and 2021 (15 μg/m3).
During the study period, a total of 221,231 non-accidental deaths were recorded in Tehran, resulting in 3.6 million YLL. The mean concentration of ambient PM2.5 was 34.7 μg/m3 (standard deviation: 15.3 μg/m3). For a 10-μg/m3 rise in 4-day moving average (lag 03-day) in PM2.5 concentration, non-accidental mortality and YLL increased by 1.12% (95% confidence interval: 0.60, 1.65) and 20.73 (7.08, 34.39) person years, respectively. A relatively higher effect was observed in males and young adults aged 18-64 years. We estimated that 39830 [AF = 1.1%] and 74284 [AF = 2.1%] YLL could potentially be avoided if daily PM2.5 concentrations attained the WHO AQG 2005 and 2021, respectively, which corresponded to potential gains in life expectancy of 0.18 (0.06, 0.30) and 0.34 (0.11, 0.56) years for each deceased person. PM2.5-associated PGLE estimates were largely robust when performing sensitivity analyses.
Our findings indicated that short-term exposure to PM2.5 is associated with increased non-accidental YLL and mortality. Prolonged life expectancy could be achieved if the particulate matter air pollution level were kept under a stricter standard.