Many countries are suffering from the COVID19 pandemic. The number of confirmed cases, recovered, and deaths are of concern to the countries having a high number of infected patients. Forecasting these parameters is a crucial way to control the spread of the disease and struggle with the pandemic. This study aimed at forecasting the number of cases and deaths in KSA using time-series and well-known statistical forecasting techniques including Exponential Smoothing and Linear Regression. The study is extended to forecast the number of cases in the main countries such that the US, Spain, and Brazil (having a large number of contamination) to validate the proposed models (Drift, SES, Holt, and ETS). The forecast results were validated using four evaluation measures. The results showed that the proposed ETS (resp. Drift) model is efficient to forecast the number of cases (resp. deaths). The comparison study, using the number of cases in KSA, showed that ETS (with RMSE reaching 18.44) outperforms the state-of-the art studies (with RMSE equal to 107.54). The proposed forecasting model can be used as a benchmark to tackle this pandemic in any country.

In pesticide residues analysis, the drift is the difference between the concentration of two bracketing calibrations in the same batch. According to the SANTE/12682/2019 guideline a criterion of ±30% must be met or positive samples should be reanalyzed. This study aimed to investigate, for the first time, the efficiency of using analyte protectants (Aps) and the sandwich injection approach (SIA) to eliminate the drift between bracketing matrix matched-calibrations taking strawberry as an example. The strawberry samples were prepared according to the citrate-buffered QuEChERS (quick, easy, cheap, effective, rugged, and safe) procedure, followed by solvent exchange from acetonitrile to n-hexane:actone (9:1). Two batches were injected with the same sequence on GC-MS/MS, the only difference was that the first batch was without Aps and the second was with Aps. The sequence of the batch was as follows: blank solvent injection, 5 strawberry matched-calibrations at 0.05 μg/ml, separated by 20 blank strawberry injections after each strawberry matched-calibration injection. The drift was measured by considering the results of the first calibration as 100% and comparing the rest 4 injections with it. After 20 injections, out of the studied 219 pesticides, more than half of the pesticides fell out of criteria when analyte protectants were not used, and by the end of the samples batch 95% of the analytes were out of criteria. Only 8% of the studied analytes were out of criteria for the Aps batch after 20 injections. In the end of the 80 samples batch, 17% were out of criteria. Furthermore, at the end of the protected matrix-matched calibration batch, 90% of the pesticides had an RSD less than 15% in comparison with only 5% of the analytes for the non-protected batch. Moreover, the non-protected batch had an obvious negative drift in comparison with the protected batch. For example, the number of pesticides that had a lower result in the second matrix matched-calibration for the non-protected batch was more than twice the number in the protected batch (194 compared to 91 out of 219 pesticides for both experiments).

Nature of exposure is a fundamental driver in nontarget terrestrial plant risk assessment for pesticides; consequently a novel study was designed to generate field-based drift exposure and evaluate corresponding biological effects of the herbicide mesotrione. The approach used a combination of US guideline drift reduction technology and vegetative vigor approaches. In each of 3 independent replicate spray application trials, 10 pots each of lettuce and tomato were placed at distances of 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 ft (∼3, 6, 9, 12, and 15 m) from the downwind edge of the spray boom. Each application was conducted using a commercial 60-ft (18-m) boom sprayer fitted with TeeJet® Technologies TTI110025 nozzles, with a nominal application rate of 0.2 lb a.i./A (224 g a.i./ha). The environmental conditions required by the protocol (air temperature 10-30 °C and wind perpendicular to the swath (±30°) blowing toward the plants at a mean wind speed of ≥10 mph [≥4.5 m/s] measured at 2.0 m above the ground) were met for each application. Following exposure, plants were transferred to a greenhouse for the 21-d vegetative vigor phase of the study. Symptoms of phytotoxicity and plant height were assessed at 7, 14, and 21 d after treatment. On completion of the 21-d after treatment assessment, all plants were harvested and dried in an oven to determine shoot dry weight. The biological data indicated that no statistically significant effects were observed at a distance of 30 ft (∼9 m) from mesotrione drift at wind speeds of ≥10 mph (10.9-12.4 mph); this endpoint (30 ft) is defined as the no observed effects distance (NOED). Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:2465-2475. © 2017 SETAC.