一场重大的全球灾难可能会破坏液体燃料贸易。依赖进口石油产品的国家可能难以维持工业化农业。进口100%精炼燃料的岛国尤其脆弱。我们的案例研究旨在估算在没有贸易的情况下养活新西兰人口所需的农业用地面积和生物燃料量。结果表明,储存的柴油在正常使用(数周)甚至严格配给(数月)时会很快耗尽。为了保存燃料,我们发现,在气候照常的情况下,种植小麦(每年只需要540万升[L]柴油)比土豆(12.3)或乳制品(38.7)更省油,以养活全国人口。在核冬天的情况下,随着农业产量的下降,需要按比例增加柴油。小麦将需要目前24%的谷物种植土地,并且用作所需生物燃料原料的油菜作物将再占据1%-7%。对油菜生物柴油或可再生柴油精炼厂的投资可以确保最低农业液体燃料需求的供应。随后的分析支持这一选择,作为燃料弹性反应的一部分,并作为日常食品使用的权衡,可以通过市场机制鼓励在灾难发生前扩大炼油和油菜种植,政府直接投资,或者这些的组合。生物燃料精炼的物流规模扩大,灾难后,也应该进行分析。Further,正常生产的生物柴油将有助于该国实现其减排目标。其他国家也应进行类似的分析。
A major global catastrophe would likely disrupt trade in liquid fuels. Countries dependent on imported oil products might struggle to sustain industrial agriculture. Island nations importing 100% of refined fuels are particularly vulnerable. Our
case study aimed to estimate the agricultural land area and
biofuel volumes needed to feed the population of New Zealand in the absence of trade. Results showed that stored diesel would quickly be exhausted with ordinary use (weeks) and even with strict rationing (months). To preserve fuel, we found that farming wheat (requiring as little as 5.4 million liters [L] of diesel per annum) was more fuel-efficient than potatoes (12.3) or dairy (38.7) to feed the national population under a climate-as-usual scenario. In a nuclear winter scenario, with reduced agricultural yields, proportionately greater diesel is needed. The wheat would require 24% of current grain-cropped land, and the canola crop used as feedstock for the required
biofuel would occupy a further 1%-7%. Investment in canola biodiesel or renewable diesel refineries could ensure supply for the bare minimum agricultural liquid fuel needs. Were subsequent analysis to favor this option as part of a fuels resilience response and as a tradeoff for routine food use, expansion in refining and canola cropping before a catastrophe could be encouraged through market mechanisms, direct government investment, or a combination of these. Logistics of
biofuel refining scale-up, post-catastrophe, should also be analyzed. Further, biodiesel produced in normal times would help the nation meet its emissions reduction targets. Other countries should conduct similar analyses.