OBJECTIVE: This study presents a Gray GM (1,1) forecasting model for predicting the future 10-year demand for nursing workforce and the number of specialized geriatric nurses, aiming to provide a scientific basis for the development of policies in health care institutions in China.
METHODS: Based on data from the China Statistical Yearbook 2022, the Gray GM (1,1) model was used to predict the demand for nursing jobs and geriatric nurses over the next 10 years (2024-2033).
RESULTS: The results indicate that from 2024 to 2033, amidst a continuous growth in the overall population and an increasingly pronounced trend of population aging, the demand for nursing workforce in China, especially for specialized geriatric nurses, is projected to steadily increase.
CONCLUSIONS: The paper provides a reference basis for the establishment of China\'s health care workforce system and the involvement of government departments in health care workforce planning.
目的:本研究提出了灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,用于预测未来10年对护理劳动力的需求和老年专科护士的数量,旨在为我国医疗卫生机构政策的制定提供科学依据。
方法:根据《2022年中国统计年鉴》的数据,使用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测未来10年(2024-2033年)对护理工作和老年护士的需求。
结果:结果表明,从2024年到2033年,在总体人口持续增长和人口老龄化趋势日益明显的情况下,中国对护理劳动力的需求,特别是对于专业的老年护士,预计将稳步增加。
结论:本文为我国医疗卫生队伍体系的建立和政府部门参与医疗卫生队伍规划提供了参考依据。