PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
BACKGROUND: In a global context, the shortage of nursing personnel has emerged as a significant challenge, particularly in countries such as China experiencing population aging. The inadequacy of nursing human resources has become one of the primary threats affecting the quality of health services available to Chinese residents. Therefore, forecasting the demand for nursing personnel has become an important issue.
OBJECTIVE: This study presents a Gray GM (1,1) forecasting model for predicting the future 10-year demand for nursing workforce and the number of specialized geriatric nurses, aiming to provide a scientific basis for the development of policies in health care institutions in China.
METHODS: Based on data from the China Statistical Yearbook 2022, the Gray GM (1,1) model was used to predict the demand for nursing jobs and geriatric nurses over the next 10 years (2024-2033).
RESULTS: The results indicate that from 2024 to 2033, amidst a continuous growth in the overall population and an increasingly pronounced trend of population aging, the demand for nursing workforce in China, especially for specialized geriatric nurses, is projected to steadily increase.
CONCLUSIONS: The paper provides a reference basis for the establishment of China\'s health care workforce system and the involvement of government departments in health care workforce planning.
OBJECTIVE: This study presents a Gray GM (1,1) forecasting model for predicting the future 10-year demand for nursing workforce and the number of specialized geriatric nurses, aiming to provide a scientific basis for the development of policies in health care institutions in China.
METHODS: Based on data from the China Statistical Yearbook 2022, the Gray GM (1,1) model was used to predict the demand for nursing jobs and geriatric nurses over the next 10 years (2024-2033).
RESULTS: The results indicate that from 2024 to 2033, amidst a continuous growth in the overall population and an increasingly pronounced trend of population aging, the demand for nursing workforce in China, especially for specialized geriatric nurses, is projected to steadily increase.
CONCLUSIONS: The paper provides a reference basis for the establishment of China\'s health care workforce system and the involvement of government departments in health care workforce planning.
摘要：
背景：在全局背景下，护理人员的短缺已经成为一个重大挑战，特别是在中国等正在经历人口老龄化的国家。护理人力资源的不足已成为影响中国居民可获得的卫生服务质量的主要威胁之一。因此,预测护理人员的需求量已经成为一个重要的问题。
目的：本研究提出了灰色GM（1,1）预测模型，用于预测未来10年对护理劳动力的需求和老年专科护士的数量，旨在为我国医疗卫生机构政策的制定提供科学依据。
方法：根据《2022年中国统计年鉴》的数据，使用灰色GM（1,1）模型预测未来10年（2024-2033年）对护理工作和老年护士的需求。
结果：结果表明，从2024年到2033年，在总体人口持续增长和人口老龄化趋势日益明显的情况下，中国对护理劳动力的需求，特别是对于专业的老年护士，预计将稳步增加。
结论：本文为我国医疗卫生队伍体系的建立和政府部门参与医疗卫生队伍规划提供了参考依据。
目的：本研究提出了灰色GM（1,1）预测模型，用于预测未来10年对护理劳动力的需求和老年专科护士的数量，旨在为我国医疗卫生机构政策的制定提供科学依据。
方法：根据《2022年中国统计年鉴》的数据，使用灰色GM（1,1）模型预测未来10年（2024-2033年）对护理工作和老年护士的需求。
结果：结果表明，从2024年到2033年，在总体人口持续增长和人口老龄化趋势日益明显的情况下，中国对护理劳动力的需求，特别是对于专业的老年护士，预计将稳步增加。
结论：本文为我国医疗卫生队伍体系的建立和政府部门参与医疗卫生队伍规划提供了参考依据。
