Abstract：
OBJECTIVE: General internal medicine is a crucial element in healthcare systems. Understanding how many people are and will be working in this field is important to maintain and improve quality for patients in healthcare systems. This can provide a basis for political decisions.
METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study to analyse the current and future workforce of generalists (general practitioners and internists in hospitals) in Switzerland. The Swiss Society of General Internal Medicine (SSGIM) distributed a survey to all members. Respondents were asked about their current average workload in 2023 and planned workload in 2033. The responses were used to calculate full-time equivalent (FTE) for the current and future workforce of generalists and to extrapolate FTE for all active SSGIM members. To model the demand by 2033, we derived different scenarios.
RESULTS: Of all 6,232 active SSGIM members, 2,030 (33%) participated: 46% female, 25% (largest age group) 56-65 years old, 19% still in postgraduate training. The average workload in 2023 was 78% for female and 87% for male generalists; the FTE extrapolated to all active SSGIM members in 2023 was 5,246. By 2033, 1,935 FTEs (36%) will retire, 502 FTEs (10%) will reduce their workload, 116 FTEs (2%) will increase their workload and 2,800 FTEs (53%) will remain in the workforce with the same workload as in 2023. To maintain the same workforce as in 2023, 2,321 new FTEs (44%) will be needed by 2033. To fill this gap of 232 FTE new generalists per year, we modelled different scenarios with assumptions of interest, workload, migration and dropouts.
CONCLUSIONS: Within only one decade, 44% of the current workforce of generalists will disappear, mainly due to retirement and decreased workload. To fill this gap, various scenarios need to be incorporated. Politicians are called upon to create the political framework to create attractive training and working conditions for generalists to address the future demand for healthcare services.
METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study to analyse the current and future workforce of generalists (general practitioners and internists in hospitals) in Switzerland. The Swiss Society of General Internal Medicine (SSGIM) distributed a survey to all members. Respondents were asked about their current average workload in 2023 and planned workload in 2033. The responses were used to calculate full-time equivalent (FTE) for the current and future workforce of generalists and to extrapolate FTE for all active SSGIM members. To model the demand by 2033, we derived different scenarios.
RESULTS: Of all 6,232 active SSGIM members, 2,030 (33%) participated: 46% female, 25% (largest age group) 56-65 years old, 19% still in postgraduate training. The average workload in 2023 was 78% for female and 87% for male generalists; the FTE extrapolated to all active SSGIM members in 2023 was 5,246. By 2033, 1,935 FTEs (36%) will retire, 502 FTEs (10%) will reduce their workload, 116 FTEs (2%) will increase their workload and 2,800 FTEs (53%) will remain in the workforce with the same workload as in 2023. To maintain the same workforce as in 2023, 2,321 new FTEs (44%) will be needed by 2033. To fill this gap of 232 FTE new generalists per year, we modelled different scenarios with assumptions of interest, workload, migration and dropouts.
CONCLUSIONS: Within only one decade, 44% of the current workforce of generalists will disappear, mainly due to retirement and decreased workload. To fill this gap, various scenarios need to be incorporated. Politicians are called upon to create the political framework to create attractive training and working conditions for generalists to address the future demand for healthcare services.
摘要：
目的：普通内科是医疗保健系统中的关键要素。了解有多少人正在和将要在这一领域工作对于维持和提高医疗保健系统中患者的质量非常重要。这可以为政治决策提供依据。
方法：我们进行了一项横断面研究，以分析瑞士目前和未来的通才（医院的全科医生和内科医生）劳动力。瑞士普通内科学会（SSGIM）向所有成员分发了一份调查。受访者被问及他们目前在2023年的平均工作量和2033年的计划工作量。响应用于计算当前和未来的通才员工的全职当量（FTE），并推断所有活跃的SSGIM成员的FTE。为了对2033年的需求进行建模，我们推导了不同的方案。
结果：在所有6,232名活跃的SSGIM成员中，2,030（33％）参加：46％的女性，25％（最大年龄组）56-65岁，19％仍在研究生培训中。2023年女性的平均工作量为78％，男性通才的平均工作量为87％；FTE推断到2023年所有活跃的SSGIM成员为5,246。到2033年，1,935家FTE（36％）将退休，502个FTE（10％）将减少他们的工作量，116名FTE（2％）将增加其工作量，而2,800名FTE（53％）将留在员工队伍中，工作量与2023年相同。为了保持与2023年相同的劳动力，到2033年将需要2,321个新的FTE（44％）。为了填补每年232名FTE新通才的空白，我们用感兴趣的假设模拟了不同的场景，工作量,迁移和辍学。
结论：仅在十年内，目前44%的通才劳动力将消失，主要是由于退休和工作量减少。为了填补这个空白，需要结合各种场景。呼吁政治家建立政治框架，为通才创造有吸引力的培训和工作条件，以满足未来对医疗保健服务的需求。
方法：我们进行了一项横断面研究，以分析瑞士目前和未来的通才（医院的全科医生和内科医生）劳动力。瑞士普通内科学会（SSGIM）向所有成员分发了一份调查。受访者被问及他们目前在2023年的平均工作量和2033年的计划工作量。响应用于计算当前和未来的通才员工的全职当量（FTE），并推断所有活跃的SSGIM成员的FTE。为了对2033年的需求进行建模，我们推导了不同的方案。
结果：在所有6,232名活跃的SSGIM成员中，2,030（33％）参加：46％的女性，25％（最大年龄组）56-65岁，19％仍在研究生培训中。2023年女性的平均工作量为78％，男性通才的平均工作量为87％；FTE推断到2023年所有活跃的SSGIM成员为5,246。到2033年，1,935家FTE（36％）将退休，502个FTE（10％）将减少他们的工作量，116名FTE（2％）将增加其工作量，而2,800名FTE（53％）将留在员工队伍中，工作量与2023年相同。为了保持与2023年相同的劳动力，到2033年将需要2,321个新的FTE（44％）。为了填补每年232名FTE新通才的空白，我们用感兴趣的假设模拟了不同的场景，工作量,迁移和辍学。
结论：仅在十年内，目前44%的通才劳动力将消失，主要是由于退休和工作量减少。为了填补这个空白，需要结合各种场景。呼吁政治家建立政治框架，为通才创造有吸引力的培训和工作条件，以满足未来对医疗保健服务的需求。
