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Abstract：
BACKGROUND: Healthcare delivery is undergoing radical changes that influence effective infection prevention and control (IPC). Futures research (short: Futures), the science of deliberating on multiple potential future states, is increasingly employed in many core societal fields. Futures might also be helpful in IPC to facilitate current education and organisational decisions. Hence, we conducted an initial survey as part of the IPC Crystal Ball Initiative.
METHODS: In 2019, international IPC experts were invited to answer a 10-item online questionnaire, including demographics, housekeeping, and open-ended core questions (Q) on the \"status of IPC in 2030\" (Q1), \"people in charge of IPC\" (Q2), \"necessary skills in IPC\" (Q3), and \"burning research questions\" (Q4). The four core questions were submitted to a three-step inductive and deductive qualitative content analysis. A subsequent cross-case matrix produced overarching leitmotifs. Q1 statements were additionally coded for sentiment analysis (positive, neutral, or negative).
RESULTS: Overall, 18 of 44 (41%) invited experts responded (from 11 countries; 12 physicians, four nurses, one manager, one microbiologist; all of them in senior positions). The emerging leitmotifs were \"System integration\", \"Beyond the hospital\", \"Behaviour change and implementation\", \"Automation and digitalisation\", and \"Anticipated scientific progress and innovation\". The statements reflected an optimistic outlook in 66% of all codes of Q1.
CONCLUSIONS: The first exercise of the IPC Crystal Ball Initiative reflected an optimistic outlook on IPC in 2030, and participants envisioned leveraging technological and medical progress to increase IPC effectiveness, freeing IPC personnel from administrative tasks to be more present at the point of care and increasing IPC integration and expansion through the application of a broad range of skills. Enhancing participant immersion in future Crystal Ball Initiative exercises through simulation would likely further increase the authenticity and comprehensiveness of the envisioned futures.
METHODS: In 2019, international IPC experts were invited to answer a 10-item online questionnaire, including demographics, housekeeping, and open-ended core questions (Q) on the \"status of IPC in 2030\" (Q1), \"people in charge of IPC\" (Q2), \"necessary skills in IPC\" (Q3), and \"burning research questions\" (Q4). The four core questions were submitted to a three-step inductive and deductive qualitative content analysis. A subsequent cross-case matrix produced overarching leitmotifs. Q1 statements were additionally coded for sentiment analysis (positive, neutral, or negative).
RESULTS: Overall, 18 of 44 (41%) invited experts responded (from 11 countries; 12 physicians, four nurses, one manager, one microbiologist; all of them in senior positions). The emerging leitmotifs were \"System integration\", \"Beyond the hospital\", \"Behaviour change and implementation\", \"Automation and digitalisation\", and \"Anticipated scientific progress and innovation\". The statements reflected an optimistic outlook in 66% of all codes of Q1.
CONCLUSIONS: The first exercise of the IPC Crystal Ball Initiative reflected an optimistic outlook on IPC in 2030, and participants envisioned leveraging technological and medical progress to increase IPC effectiveness, freeing IPC personnel from administrative tasks to be more present at the point of care and increasing IPC integration and expansion through the application of a broad range of skills. Enhancing participant immersion in future Crystal Ball Initiative exercises through simulation would likely further increase the authenticity and comprehensiveness of the envisioned futures.
摘要：
背景：医疗保健服务正在发生根本性的变化，影响有效的感染预防和控制（IPC）。期货研究（空头：期货），研究多种潜在未来状态的科学，越来越多地应用于许多核心社会领域。未来也可能有助于IPC促进当前的教育和组织决策。因此，作为IPC水晶球计划的一部分，我们进行了初步调查。
方法：2019年，邀请国际IPC专家回答了10项在线问卷，包括人口统计，家政服务,以及关于“2030年IPC状况”(Q1)的开放式核心问题(Q)，“IPC负责人”（Q2），“IPC中的必要技能”（Q3），和“燃烧研究问题”(第四季度)。将四个核心问题提交给三步归纳和演绎定性内容分析。随后的跨大小写矩阵产生了总体主题。第一季度的声明还被编码为情绪分析(积极的，中性,或否定)。
结果：总体而言，44名受邀专家中有18名(41%)做出了回应(来自11个国家；12名医生，四个护士,一位经理,一名微生物学家；他们都是高级职位)。新兴的主题是“系统集成”，\"超越医院\"“行为改变和实施”，“自动化和数字化”，和“预期的科学进步和创新”。这些声明反映了第一季度所有代码中66%的乐观前景。
结论：IPCCrystalBallInitiative的第一个练习反映了2030年IPC的乐观前景，参与者设想利用技术和医学进步来提高IPC的有效性。将IPC人员从管理任务中解放出来，以便更多地出现在护理点，并通过应用广泛的技能来增加IPC的整合和扩展。通过模拟增强参与者对未来水晶球计划练习的沉浸感，可能会进一步提高预期未来的真实性和全面性。
方法：2019年，邀请国际IPC专家回答了10项在线问卷，包括人口统计，家政服务,以及关于“2030年IPC状况”(Q1)的开放式核心问题(Q)，“IPC负责人”（Q2），“IPC中的必要技能”（Q3），和“燃烧研究问题”(第四季度)。将四个核心问题提交给三步归纳和演绎定性内容分析。随后的跨大小写矩阵产生了总体主题。第一季度的声明还被编码为情绪分析(积极的，中性,或否定)。
结果：总体而言，44名受邀专家中有18名(41%)做出了回应(来自11个国家；12名医生，四个护士,一位经理,一名微生物学家；他们都是高级职位)。新兴的主题是“系统集成”，\"超越医院\"“行为改变和实施”，“自动化和数字化”，和“预期的科学进步和创新”。这些声明反映了第一季度所有代码中66%的乐观前景。
结论：IPCCrystalBallInitiative的第一个练习反映了2030年IPC的乐观前景，参与者设想利用技术和医学进步来提高IPC的有效性。将IPC人员从管理任务中解放出来，以便更多地出现在护理点，并通过应用广泛的技能来增加IPC的整合和扩展。通过模拟增强参与者对未来水晶球计划练习的沉浸感，可能会进一步提高预期未来的真实性和全面性。
