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Abstract：
BackgroundThe Vibrio genus comprises several bacterial species present in the Baltic Sea region (BSR), which are known to cause human infections.AimTo provide a comprehensive retrospective analysis of Vibrio-induced infections in the BSR from 1994 to 2021, focusing on the \'big four\' Vibrio species - V. alginolyticus, V. cholerae non-O1/O139, V. parahaemolyticus and V. vulnificus - in eight European countries (Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Sweden) bordering the Baltic Sea.MethodsOur analysis includes data on infections, Vibrio species distribution in coastal waters and environmental data received from national health agencies or extracted from scientific literature and online databases. A redundancy analysis was performed to determine the potential impact of several independent variables, such as sea surface temperature, salinity, the number of designated coastal beaches and year, on the Vibrio infection rate.ResultsFor BSR countries conducting surveillance, we observed an exponential increase in total Vibrio infections (n = 1,553) across the region over time. In Sweden and Germany, total numbers of Vibrio spp. and infections caused by V. alginolyticus and V. parahaemolyticus positively correlate with increasing sea surface temperature. Salinity emerged as a critical driver of Vibrio spp. distribution and abundance. Furthermore, our proposed statistical model reveals 12 to 20 unreported cases in Lithuania and Poland, respectively, countries with no surveillance.ConclusionsThere are discrepancies in Vibrio surveillance and monitoring among countries, emphasising the need for comprehensive monitoring programmes of these pathogens to protect human health, particularly in the context of climate change.
摘要：
背景弧菌属包括波罗的海地区（BSR）中存在的几种细菌物种，已知会导致人类感染。目的对1994年至2021年BSR中弧菌引起的感染进行全面的回顾性分析，重点是四大弧菌-溶藻弧菌，非O1/O139霍乱弧菌，副溶血性弧菌和创伤弧菌-在八个欧洲国家(丹麦，爱沙尼亚,芬兰,德国,拉脱维亚,立陶宛,波兰和瑞典）毗邻波罗的海。方法我们的分析包括感染数据，从国家卫生机构收到的或从科学文献和在线数据库中提取的沿海水域弧菌物种分布和环境数据。进行了冗余分析，以确定几个独立变量的潜在影响，例如海面温度，盐度,指定沿海海滩的数量和年份，弧菌感染率。结果对于进行监测的BSR国家，随着时间的推移，我们观察到该地区弧菌感染总数(n=1,553)呈指数增长。在瑞典和德国，弧菌总数。溶藻弧菌和副溶血性弧菌引起的感染与海表温度升高呈正相关。盐度成为弧菌属的关键驱动因素。分布和丰度。此外，我们提出的统计模型揭示了立陶宛和波兰的12到20个未报告病例，分别,没有监控的国家。结论各国在弧菌监测和监测方面存在差异，强调需要对这些病原体进行全面监测，以保护人类健康，特别是在气候变化的背景下。
