PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Malignant urban gas accidents, accounting for only approximately 1 % of the total gas accidents in China, are responsible for over 50 % of fatalities, thus becoming a major cause of public concern regarding gas safety. A comprehensive understanding of the characteristics of historical accidents is an effective way to prevent and reduce future accidents. In this regard, the study meticulously collects and analyzes all malignant gas accidents that occurred in China from 2013 to 2022. This approach can effectively clarify the focus of gas accident prevention, and also facilitate the implementation of more targeted preventive measures. The study provides diverse perspectives and comprehensive statistics on accidents using 10 variables in 6 dimensions: time (year, month, day, hour), location (province, place), gas source, type, cause, and level. In addition to common quantitative statistics, proportional analyses and visual displays, methods such as contingency tables, t-tests, chi-square tests, and cluster analyses were also used to provide more in-depth analyses and identify more potential patterns. The findings elucidate that: (1) Over the past decade, the yearly distribution of malignant gas accidents in China has been relatively stable; but, individual, particularly major accidents, have significantly influenced the overall severity; (2) June and July are the peak months for such accidents; (3) The most severe accidents occur during 6:00-6:59 a.m., 11:00-11:59 a.m., and 11:00-11:59 p.m.; (4) Central and eastern provinces are the epicenters of malignant gas accidents; (5) Residential accommodations, and restaurants and shops are frequently affected; (6) Liquefied petroleum gas, despite comprising merely 8.7 % of the aggregate supply, is implicated in over half of the malignant occurrences and associated fatalities; (7) Explosions account for approximately 78.49 % of these accidents; (8) Among the accident causes, violations of rules by workers stands as the foremost contributor; (9) Malignant gas accidents are generally larger accident. Moreover, this manuscript delves into the underlying reasons behind each noteworthy statistical trend and analyzes the critical issues facing the gas industry. This investigation not only bridges the gap in the statistical profiling of malignant gas accidents within China but also furnishes invaluable insights that may guide preventive measures against urban gas-related disasters. Furthermore, the methodological approaches and variable selections explored in this study lay a robust foundation for future endeavors in the realm of malignant gas accident management research and practice.
摘要：
恶性城市燃气事故，仅占中国天然气事故总量的1%左右，造成超过50%的死亡，从而成为公众关注燃气安全的主要原因。全面了解历史事故的特点是预防和减少未来事故的有效途径。在这方面,该研究精心收集和分析了2013年至2022年在中国发生的所有恶性燃气事故。这种方法可以有效地明确燃气事故预防的重点,并促进实施更有针对性的预防措施。该研究使用6个维度的10个变量提供了不同的视角和对事故的全面统计：时间（年，月,day,小时),位置(省，地点),气源,type,cause,和水平。除了常见的定量统计，比例分析和视觉显示，方法，如列联表，t检验,卡方检验,和聚类分析也被用来提供更深入的分析和识别更多的潜在模式。研究结果表明：(1)在过去的十年中，中国恶性瓦斯事故的年度分布相对稳定；但是，个人,特别是重大事故，对总体严重程度有显著影响；（2）6月和7月是此类事故的高峰月份；（3）最严重的事故发生在上午6:00-6:59，上午11:00-11:59,和晚上11:00-11:59；（4）中部和东部省份是恶性燃气事故的震中；（5）住宅，餐馆和商店经常受到影响；(6)液化石油气，尽管仅占总供应量的8.7%，与一半以上的恶性肿瘤和相关死亡有关；(7)爆炸约占这些事故的78.49%；(8)在事故原因中，工人违反规定是最大的贡献者；(9)恶性气体事故通常是较大的事故。此外，这份手稿深入研究了每一个值得注意的统计趋势背后的根本原因，并分析了天然气行业面临的关键问题。这项调查不仅弥合了中国境内恶性燃气事故统计分析的差距，而且还提供了宝贵的见解，可以指导针对城市燃气相关灾害的预防措施。此外，本研究探索的方法方法和变量选择为今后恶性气体事故管理研究和实践领域的努力奠定了坚实的基础。
