PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
UNASSIGNED: Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease that was first identified in mainland China in 2009 and has been reported in Zhejiang Province, China, since 2011. However, few studies have focused on the association between ticks, host animals, and SFTS.
UNASSIGNED: In this study, we analyzed the influence of meteorological and environmental factors as well as the influence of ticks and host animals on SFTS. This can serve as a foundational basis for the development of strategic policies aimed at the prevention and control of SFTS.
UNASSIGNED: Data on SFTS incidence, tick density, cattle density, and meteorological and environmental factors were collected and analyzed using a maximum entropy-based model.
UNASSIGNED: As of December 2019, 463 laboratory-confirmed SFTS cases were reported in Zhejiang Province. We found that the density of ticks, precipitation in the wettest month, average temperature, elevation, and the normalized difference vegetation index were significantly associated with SFTS spatial distribution. The niche model fitted accurately with good performance in predicting the potential risk areas of SFTS (the average test area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the replicate runs was 0.803 and the SD was 0.013). The risk of SFTS occurrence increased with an increase in tick density, and the response curve indicated that the risk was greater than 0.5 when tick density exceeded 1.4. The risk of SFTS occurrence decreased with increased precipitation in the wettest month, and the risk was less than 0.5 when precipitation exceeded 224.4 mm. The relationship between elevation and SFTS occurrence showed a reverse V shape, and the risk peaked at approximately 400 m.
UNASSIGNED: Tick density, precipitation, and elevation were dominant influencing factors for SFTS, and comprehensive intervention measures should be adjusted according to these factors to reduce SFTS incidence in Zhejiang Province.
UNASSIGNED: In this study, we analyzed the influence of meteorological and environmental factors as well as the influence of ticks and host animals on SFTS. This can serve as a foundational basis for the development of strategic policies aimed at the prevention and control of SFTS.
UNASSIGNED: Data on SFTS incidence, tick density, cattle density, and meteorological and environmental factors were collected and analyzed using a maximum entropy-based model.
UNASSIGNED: As of December 2019, 463 laboratory-confirmed SFTS cases were reported in Zhejiang Province. We found that the density of ticks, precipitation in the wettest month, average temperature, elevation, and the normalized difference vegetation index were significantly associated with SFTS spatial distribution. The niche model fitted accurately with good performance in predicting the potential risk areas of SFTS (the average test area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the replicate runs was 0.803 and the SD was 0.013). The risk of SFTS occurrence increased with an increase in tick density, and the response curve indicated that the risk was greater than 0.5 when tick density exceeded 1.4. The risk of SFTS occurrence decreased with increased precipitation in the wettest month, and the risk was less than 0.5 when precipitation exceeded 224.4 mm. The relationship between elevation and SFTS occurrence showed a reverse V shape, and the risk peaked at approximately 400 m.
UNASSIGNED: Tick density, precipitation, and elevation were dominant influencing factors for SFTS, and comprehensive intervention measures should be adjusted according to these factors to reduce SFTS incidence in Zhejiang Province.
摘要：
■严重发热伴血小板减少综合征（SFTS）是一种新兴的传染病，于2009年在中国大陆首次发现，并在浙江省有报道，中国,自2011年。然而,很少有研究关注蜱之间的关联，宿主动物,和SFTS。
■在这项研究中，我们分析了气象和环境因素以及蜱和宿主动物对SFTS的影响。这可以作为制定旨在预防和控制SFTS的战略政策的基础。
■SFTS发生率数据，蜱密度,牛的密度，并使用基于最大熵的模型收集和分析了气象和环境因素。
■截至2019年12月，浙江省报告了463例实验室确诊的SFTS病例。我们发现蜱的密度，降水在最潮湿的月份，平均温度,高程,归一化植被指数与SFTS空间分布显著相关。生态位模型在预测SFTS的潜在风险区域方面具有良好的性能（重复运行的受试者工作特征曲线下的平均测试面积为0.803，SD为0.013）。SFTS发生的风险随着蜱密度的增加而增加，反应曲线表明，当蜱密度超过1.4时，风险大于0.5。在最潮湿的月份，随着降水的增加，SFTS发生的风险降低。当降水量超过224.4毫米时，风险小于0.5。海拔与SFTS发生的关系呈倒V形，风险在大约400米处达到峰值。
■滴答密度，降水,和海拔是SFTS的主要影响因素，应根据这些因素调整综合干预措施,降低浙江省SFTS发病率。
■在这项研究中，我们分析了气象和环境因素以及蜱和宿主动物对SFTS的影响。这可以作为制定旨在预防和控制SFTS的战略政策的基础。
■SFTS发生率数据，蜱密度,牛的密度，并使用基于最大熵的模型收集和分析了气象和环境因素。
■截至2019年12月，浙江省报告了463例实验室确诊的SFTS病例。我们发现蜱的密度，降水在最潮湿的月份，平均温度,高程,归一化植被指数与SFTS空间分布显著相关。生态位模型在预测SFTS的潜在风险区域方面具有良好的性能（重复运行的受试者工作特征曲线下的平均测试面积为0.803，SD为0.013）。SFTS发生的风险随着蜱密度的增加而增加，反应曲线表明，当蜱密度超过1.4时，风险大于0.5。在最潮湿的月份，随着降水的增加，SFTS发生的风险降低。当降水量超过224.4毫米时，风险小于0.5。海拔与SFTS发生的关系呈倒V形，风险在大约400米处达到峰值。
■滴答密度，降水,和海拔是SFTS的主要影响因素，应根据这些因素调整综合干预措施,降低浙江省SFTS发病率。
