PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
BACKGROUND: Understanding how endangered species respond to climatic changes is fundamental for their conservation. Due to its restricted geographic range, its sensitivity to the ongoing global warming and its continuing decline, the Southwestern-Alpine endemic wolf spider Vesubia jugorum is currently classified as Endangered in the IUCN Red List. Here, we combined species distribution modelling (SDM) and phylogeographic inference to describe the present, the past and the future of this species in light of the mtDNA genetic structure of extant populations.
RESULTS: Phylogenetic and network analyses show a high level of genetic differentiation and a strong genetic structure of the populations, likely explicable by a long history of isolation and survival in separate refugia. The SDM projection into past climatic conditions supports these results by showing a smaller distribution range compared to present, mostly restricted to the Maritime and Ligurian Alps, which possibly served as main refugium. Future forecast shows a significant shift in the bioclimatic range towards higher altitudes and latitudes, with a drastic decrease of habitat suitability in the central and south-eastern parts of the range, with consequent general loss of haplotype diversity.
CONCLUSIONS: SDM and phylogeographic inference support the hypothesis that the current distribution and the genetic structure of the extant populations mirror the survival in situ of Vesubia jugorum across repeated glacial and interglacial phases, in line with the \'long-term stability hypothesis\'. Future predictions show a significant shift in the bioclimatic range that V. jugorum will be likely unable to track, with profound impact on its long-term survival and its genetic diversity. Our considerations have implication for conservation genetics, highlighting the pivotal role of the transboundary protected areas of the SW-Alps in promoting conservation efforts for this species.
RESULTS: Phylogenetic and network analyses show a high level of genetic differentiation and a strong genetic structure of the populations, likely explicable by a long history of isolation and survival in separate refugia. The SDM projection into past climatic conditions supports these results by showing a smaller distribution range compared to present, mostly restricted to the Maritime and Ligurian Alps, which possibly served as main refugium. Future forecast shows a significant shift in the bioclimatic range towards higher altitudes and latitudes, with a drastic decrease of habitat suitability in the central and south-eastern parts of the range, with consequent general loss of haplotype diversity.
CONCLUSIONS: SDM and phylogeographic inference support the hypothesis that the current distribution and the genetic structure of the extant populations mirror the survival in situ of Vesubia jugorum across repeated glacial and interglacial phases, in line with the \'long-term stability hypothesis\'. Future predictions show a significant shift in the bioclimatic range that V. jugorum will be likely unable to track, with profound impact on its long-term survival and its genetic diversity. Our considerations have implication for conservation genetics, highlighting the pivotal role of the transboundary protected areas of the SW-Alps in promoting conservation efforts for this species.
摘要：
背景：了解濒危物种如何应对气候变化是其保护的基础。由于其地理范围有限，它对持续的全球变暖及其持续下降的敏感性，西南高山特有的狼蜘蛛Vesubiajugorum目前在IUCN红色名录中被列为濒危物种。这里,我们结合物种分布模型(SDM)和系统地理推断来描述现在，根据现存种群的mtDNA遗传结构，该物种的过去和未来。
结果：系统发育和网络分析显示，群体的遗传分化水平很高，遗传结构很强，可能通过长期隔离和在单独避难所生存的历史来解释。SDM对过去气候条件的预测通过显示与目前相比更小的分布范围来支持这些结果。主要限于海上和利古里亚阿尔卑斯山，这可能是主要的避难所。未来的预测显示，生物气候范围向更高的海拔和纬度方向发生了重大变化，随着该地区中部和东南部栖息地适宜性的急剧下降，随之而来的是单倍型多样性的普遍丧失。
结论：SDM和系统地理学推断支持以下假设，即现存种群的当前分布和遗传结构反映了维苏巴在反复的冰期和冰期之间的原位生存。符合“长期稳定性假设”。未来的预测显示生物气候范围发生了重大变化，对其长期生存和遗传多样性产生了深远的影响。我们的考虑对保护遗传学有影响，强调了西南阿尔卑斯山跨界保护区在促进该物种保护工作中的关键作用。
结果：系统发育和网络分析显示，群体的遗传分化水平很高，遗传结构很强，可能通过长期隔离和在单独避难所生存的历史来解释。SDM对过去气候条件的预测通过显示与目前相比更小的分布范围来支持这些结果。主要限于海上和利古里亚阿尔卑斯山，这可能是主要的避难所。未来的预测显示，生物气候范围向更高的海拔和纬度方向发生了重大变化，随着该地区中部和东南部栖息地适宜性的急剧下降，随之而来的是单倍型多样性的普遍丧失。
结论：SDM和系统地理学推断支持以下假设，即现存种群的当前分布和遗传结构反映了维苏巴在反复的冰期和冰期之间的原位生存。符合“长期稳定性假设”。未来的预测显示生物气候范围发生了重大变化，对其长期生存和遗传多样性产生了深远的影响。我们的考虑对保护遗传学有影响，强调了西南阿尔卑斯山跨界保护区在促进该物种保护工作中的关键作用。
