PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
UNASSIGNED: Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to 2050.
UNASSIGNED: Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVD and risk factors in Asia in the coming decades.
UNASSIGNED: Between 2025 and 2050, crude cardiovascular mortality is expected to rise 91.2% despite a 23.0% decrease in the age-standardised cardiovascular mortality rate (ASMR). Ischaemic heart disease (115 deaths per 100,000 population) and stroke (63 deaths per 100,000 population) will remain leading drivers of ASMR in 2050. Central Asia will have the highest ASMR (676 deaths per 100,000 population), more than three-fold that of Asia overall (186 deaths per 100,000 population), while high-income Asia sub-regions will incur an ASMR of 22 deaths per 100,000 in 2050. High systolic blood pressure will contribute the highest ASMR throughout Asia (105 deaths per 100,000 population), except in Central Asia where high fasting plasma glucose will dominate (546 deaths per 100,000 population).
UNASSIGNED: This forecast forewarns an almost doubling in crude cardiovascular mortality by 2050 in Asia, with marked heterogeneity across sub-regions. Atherosclerotic diseases will continue to dominate, while high systolic blood pressure will be the leading risk factor.
UNASSIGNED: This was supported by the NUHS Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03), National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship (MH 095:003/008-303), National University of Singapore Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine\'s Junior Academic Fellowship Scheme, NUHS Clinician Scientist Program (NCSP2.0/2024/NUHS/NCWS) and the CArdiovascular DiseasE National Collaborative Enterprise (CADENCE) National Clinical Translational Program (MOH-001277-01).
UNASSIGNED: Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVD and risk factors in Asia in the coming decades.
UNASSIGNED: Between 2025 and 2050, crude cardiovascular mortality is expected to rise 91.2% despite a 23.0% decrease in the age-standardised cardiovascular mortality rate (ASMR). Ischaemic heart disease (115 deaths per 100,000 population) and stroke (63 deaths per 100,000 population) will remain leading drivers of ASMR in 2050. Central Asia will have the highest ASMR (676 deaths per 100,000 population), more than three-fold that of Asia overall (186 deaths per 100,000 population), while high-income Asia sub-regions will incur an ASMR of 22 deaths per 100,000 in 2050. High systolic blood pressure will contribute the highest ASMR throughout Asia (105 deaths per 100,000 population), except in Central Asia where high fasting plasma glucose will dominate (546 deaths per 100,000 population).
UNASSIGNED: This forecast forewarns an almost doubling in crude cardiovascular mortality by 2050 in Asia, with marked heterogeneity across sub-regions. Atherosclerotic diseases will continue to dominate, while high systolic blood pressure will be the leading risk factor.
UNASSIGNED: This was supported by the NUHS Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03), National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship (MH 095:003/008-303), National University of Singapore Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine\'s Junior Academic Fellowship Scheme, NUHS Clinician Scientist Program (NCSP2.0/2024/NUHS/NCWS) and the CArdiovascular DiseasE National Collaborative Enterprise (CADENCE) National Clinical Translational Program (MOH-001277-01).
摘要：
■鉴于亚洲心血管疾病（CVD）的负担迅速增加，这项研究预测了亚洲从2025年到2050年的心血管疾病负担和相关危险因素.
■来自2019年全球疾病负担研究的数据用于构建预测患病率的回归模型，死亡率,和残疾调整寿命年（DALYs）归因于未来几十年亚洲的CVD和危险因素。
■在2025年至2050年之间，尽管年龄标准化心血管死亡率（ASMR）下降了23.0％，但粗心血管死亡率预计将上升91.2％。缺血性心脏病（每100,000人中有115人死亡）和中风（每100,000人中有63人死亡）将在2050年仍然是ASMR的主要驱动因素。中亚将拥有最高的ASMR（每100,000人口中有676人死亡），是亚洲整体的三倍多(每10万人口中有186人死亡)，而到2050年，高收入亚洲次区域将导致每10万人中22人死亡。高收缩压将导致整个亚洲最高的ASMR（每100,000人口中有105例死亡），除了在中亚，高空腹血糖将占主导地位（每100,000人中有546人死亡）。
■这一预测预示着，到2050年，亚洲的粗心血管死亡率将几乎翻一番，分区域之间具有明显的异质性。动脉粥样硬化疾病将继续占主导地位，而高收缩压将是主要的危险因素。
■这得到了NUHS种子基金（NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03）的支持，国家医学研究委员会研究培训奖学金(MH095:003/008-303)，新加坡国立大学林永路医学院初级学术奖学金计划，NUHS临床科学家计划（NCSP2.0/2024/NUHS/NCWS）和心血管疾病国家合作企业（CADENCE）国家临床转化计划（MOH-001277-01）。
■来自2019年全球疾病负担研究的数据用于构建预测患病率的回归模型，死亡率,和残疾调整寿命年（DALYs）归因于未来几十年亚洲的CVD和危险因素。
■在2025年至2050年之间，尽管年龄标准化心血管死亡率（ASMR）下降了23.0％，但粗心血管死亡率预计将上升91.2％。缺血性心脏病（每100,000人中有115人死亡）和中风（每100,000人中有63人死亡）将在2050年仍然是ASMR的主要驱动因素。中亚将拥有最高的ASMR（每100,000人口中有676人死亡），是亚洲整体的三倍多(每10万人口中有186人死亡)，而到2050年，高收入亚洲次区域将导致每10万人中22人死亡。高收缩压将导致整个亚洲最高的ASMR（每100,000人口中有105例死亡），除了在中亚，高空腹血糖将占主导地位（每100,000人中有546人死亡）。
■这一预测预示着，到2050年，亚洲的粗心血管死亡率将几乎翻一番，分区域之间具有明显的异质性。动脉粥样硬化疾病将继续占主导地位，而高收缩压将是主要的危险因素。
■这得到了NUHS种子基金（NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03）的支持，国家医学研究委员会研究培训奖学金(MH095:003/008-303)，新加坡国立大学林永路医学院初级学术奖学金计划，NUHS临床科学家计划（NCSP2.0/2024/NUHS/NCWS）和心血管疾病国家合作企业（CADENCE）国家临床转化计划（MOH-001277-01）。
