PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
UNASSIGNED: Few studies have investigated near vision loss (NVL) in China. To address this gap, we aimed to explore trends in the prevalence and disease burden of NVL from 1990 to 2019 and to predict trends over the next decade.
UNASSIGNED: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study, we calculated the age-standardised prevalence rate (ASPR), age-specific disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and annual percentage change (EAPC) in China and different regions. We then used the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) predictive model to predict the prevalence trends from 2020 to 2030 in both contexts.
UNASSIGNED: At the global level, ASPRs increased from 5613.27 in 1990 to 5937.81 per 100 000 population in 2019, with an EAPC of 0.06. The ASPR in China specifically decreased from 7538.14 in 1990 to 7392.86 per 100 000 population in 2019 (EAPC = -0.02). The age-standardised DALY rate was higher in women than in men, both globally and in China. The NVL burden was relatively higher in low-income regions, low sociodemographic index regions, and the South-East Asia Region compared to other regions. The predictive model indicated that the ASR trend for NVL slowly increased at a global level after 2020, yet decreased in China.
UNASSIGNED: Despite a decline in the age-standardised prevalence of NVL in China over the next decade, the current burden remains substantial. To alleviate this burden, decision-makers should adopt inclusive approaches by involving all stakeholders.
UNASSIGNED: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study, we calculated the age-standardised prevalence rate (ASPR), age-specific disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and annual percentage change (EAPC) in China and different regions. We then used the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) predictive model to predict the prevalence trends from 2020 to 2030 in both contexts.
UNASSIGNED: At the global level, ASPRs increased from 5613.27 in 1990 to 5937.81 per 100 000 population in 2019, with an EAPC of 0.06. The ASPR in China specifically decreased from 7538.14 in 1990 to 7392.86 per 100 000 population in 2019 (EAPC = -0.02). The age-standardised DALY rate was higher in women than in men, both globally and in China. The NVL burden was relatively higher in low-income regions, low sociodemographic index regions, and the South-East Asia Region compared to other regions. The predictive model indicated that the ASR trend for NVL slowly increased at a global level after 2020, yet decreased in China.
UNASSIGNED: Despite a decline in the age-standardised prevalence of NVL in China over the next decade, the current burden remains substantial. To alleviate this burden, decision-makers should adopt inclusive approaches by involving all stakeholders.
摘要：
■在中国很少有研究调查近视力丧失(NVL)。为了解决这个差距，我们旨在探讨1990年至2019年NVL患病率和疾病负担的趋势,并预测未来10年的趋势.
■使用2019年全球疾病负担研究的数据，我们计算了年龄标准化患病率(ASPR)，特定年龄残疾调整寿命年(DALYs)，以及中国和不同地区的年度百分比变化(EAPC)。然后，我们使用贝叶斯年龄周期队列（BAPC）预测模型来预测两种情况下2020年至2030年的患病率趋势。
■在全球范围内，ASPR从1990年的5613.27增加到2019年的每10万人口5937.81，EAPC为0.06。中国的ASPR从1990年的7538.14下降到2019年的7392.86/10万人口（EAPC=-0.02）。女性的年龄标准化DALY率高于男性，在全球和中国。低收入地区的NVL负担相对较高，社会人口指数低的地区，和东南亚地区与其他地区相比。预测模型表明，在2020年之后，NVL的ASR趋势在全球范围内缓慢增加，但在中国却有所下降。
■尽管未来十年中国NVL的年龄标准化患病率有所下降，目前的负担仍然很大。为了减轻这种负担，决策者应采取包容性方法，让所有利益攸关方参与进来。
■使用2019年全球疾病负担研究的数据，我们计算了年龄标准化患病率(ASPR)，特定年龄残疾调整寿命年(DALYs)，以及中国和不同地区的年度百分比变化(EAPC)。然后，我们使用贝叶斯年龄周期队列（BAPC）预测模型来预测两种情况下2020年至2030年的患病率趋势。
■在全球范围内，ASPR从1990年的5613.27增加到2019年的每10万人口5937.81，EAPC为0.06。中国的ASPR从1990年的7538.14下降到2019年的7392.86/10万人口（EAPC=-0.02）。女性的年龄标准化DALY率高于男性，在全球和中国。低收入地区的NVL负担相对较高，社会人口指数低的地区，和东南亚地区与其他地区相比。预测模型表明，在2020年之后，NVL的ASR趋势在全球范围内缓慢增加，但在中国却有所下降。
■尽管未来十年中国NVL的年龄标准化患病率有所下降，目前的负担仍然很大。为了减轻这种负担，决策者应采取包容性方法，让所有利益攸关方参与进来。
