PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
In the last two decades, Nipah virus (NiV) has emerged as a significant paramyxovirus transmitted by bats, causing severe respiratory illness and encephalitis in humans. NiV has been included in the World Health Organization\'s Blueprint list of priority pathogens due its potential for human-to-human transmission and zoonotic characteristics. In this paper, a mathematical model is formulated to analyze the dynamics and optimal control of NiV. In formulation of the model we consider two modes of transmission: human-to-human and food-borne. Further, the impact of contact with an infected corpse as a potential route for virus transmission is also consider in the model. The analysis identifies the model with constant controls has three equilibrium states: the NiV-free equilibrium, the infected flying foxes-free equilibrium, and the NiV-endemic equilibrium state. Furthermore, a theoretical analysis is conducted to presents the stability of the model equilibria. The model fitting to the reported cases in Bangladesh from 2001 to 2015, and the estimation of parameters are performed using the standard least squares technique. Sensitivity analysis of the model-embedded parameters is provided to set the optimal time-dependent controls for the disease eradication. The necessary optimality conditions are derived using Pontryagin\'s maximum principle. Finally, numerical simulation is performed to determine the most effective strategy for disease eradication and to confirm the theoretical results.
摘要：
在过去的二十年里，尼帕病毒（NiV）已成为蝙蝠传播的重要副粘病毒，导致人类严重的呼吸道疾病和脑炎。NiV由于具有人与人之间传播和人畜共患特征的潜力，已被列入世界卫生组织的优先病原体蓝图清单。在本文中,建立了数学模型来分析NiV的动力学和最优控制。在模型的制定中，我们考虑了两种传播方式：人与人之间和食源性。Further,该模型还考虑了与受感染尸体接触作为病毒传播的潜在途径的影响。分析确定具有恒定控制的模型具有三个平衡状态：无NiV平衡，受感染的自由飞狐平衡，和NiV-地方病平衡状态。此外，进行了理论分析，证明了模型均衡的稳定性。对孟加拉国2001年至2015年的报告病例进行模型拟合，并使用标准最小二乘技术进行参数估计。提供了模型嵌入参数的敏感性分析，以设置用于根除疾病的最佳时间依赖性控制。使用Pontryagin的最大值原理推导了必要的最优性条件。最后,进行了数值模拟，以确定最有效的疾病根除策略，并确认理论结果。
