PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
The distribution of a species reflects its ecological adaptability and evolutionary history, which is shaped by the environment and represents a dynamic area subject to anthropogenic environmental change. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to construct ecological niche models for four thrush species within the Turdus genus; T. amaurochalinus, T. chiguanco, T. falcklandii and T. rufiventris. These models were used to predict the potential geographic distributions of these species that are expanding their ranges in South America. Using occurrence records, we estimated currently occupied areas for each species. We also identified suitable habitats and projected possible areas to be colonized by the four species at continental scale. Temperature annual range had the highest influence for T. falcklandii, while human modification was the main variable explaining the distribution of the other three species. The potential distribution area ranged from 2.5 million km2 for T. falcklandii to nearly seven million km2 for T. amaurochalinus. Large proportions of suitable area remain unoccupied by all four species, being 50% for T. amaurochalinus and T. rufiventris, and about 70% for T. chiguanco and T. falcklandii. Anthropogenic disturbances, such as habitat loss and ecosystem transformation, lead to non-random species extinction and biotic homogenization, highlighting the importance of predictive models as valuable tools for informing mitigation policies and conservation strategies. Thrushes are progressively expanding their ranges, and the colonization of new habitats could bring new challenges.
摘要：
一个物种的分布反映了其生态适应性和进化史,它是由环境塑造的，代表一个受人为环境变化影响的动态区域。我们使用MaxEnt算法为Turdus属中的四个鹅口疮物种构建了生态位模型；T.amaurochalinus，T.chiguanco,法尔克兰迪伊和鲁菲文特里斯。这些模型用于预测这些物种的潜在地理分布，这些物种正在扩大其在南美的范围。使用发生记录，我们估计了每个物种目前的占用面积。我们还确定了合适的栖息地，并预测了这四种物种在大陆尺度上可能会定居的地区。温度的年度范围对法尔克兰迪伊的影响最大，而人类修饰是解释其他三个物种分布的主要变量。潜在分布面积从法尔克兰迪氏T.falcklandii的250万km2到阿马罗氏T.amaurochalinus的近700万km2不等。大部分合适的区域都没有被所有四个物种占据，是50%的t.amaurochalinus和T.rufiventris，大约70%的是T.chiguanco和T.falcklandii。人为干扰，例如栖息地的丧失和生态系统的转变，导致非随机物种灭绝和生物均质化，强调预测模型作为为缓解政策和保护战略提供信息的宝贵工具的重要性。鹅口疮的范围逐渐扩大,新栖息地的殖民可能会带来新的挑战。
