PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
The COVID-19 pandemic came with many setbacks, be it to a country\'s economy or the global missions of organizations like WHO, UNICEF or GTFCC. One of the setbacks is the rise in cholera cases in developing countries due to the lack of cholera vaccination. This model suggested a solution by introducing another public intervention, such as adding Chlorine to water bodies and vaccination. A novel delay differential model of fractional order was recommended, with two different delays, one representing the latent period of the disease and the other being the delay in adding a disinfectant to the aquatic environment. This model also takes into account the population that will receive a vaccination. This study utilized sensitivity analysis of reproduction number to analytically prove the effectiveness of control measures in preventing the spread of the disease. This analysis provided the mathematical evidence for adding disinfectants in water bodies and inoculating susceptible individuals. The stability of the equilibrium points has been discussed. The existence of stability switching curves is determined. Numerical simulation showed the effect of delay, resulting in fluctuations in some compartments. It also depicted the impact of the order of derivative on the oscillations.
摘要：
COVID-19大流行带来了许多挫折，无论是对一个国家的经济还是像世界卫生组织这样的组织的全球使命，儿童基金会或GTFCC。挫折之一是由于缺乏霍乱疫苗接种，发展中国家霍乱病例增加。该模型通过引入另一种公共干预提出了解决方案，例如在水体中添加氯和接种疫苗。提出了一种新的分数阶时滞微分模型,有两种不同的延迟，一个代表疾病的潜伏期，另一个代表向水生环境添加消毒剂的延迟。该模型还考虑了将接受疫苗接种的人群。本研究利用繁殖数量的敏感性分析来分析证明控制措施在预防疾病传播方面的有效性。该分析为在水体中添加消毒剂和接种易感个体提供了数学证据。已经讨论了平衡点的稳定性。确定了稳定性切换曲线的存在性。数值模拟显示了延迟的影响,导致一些隔间的波动。它还描述了导数阶数对振荡的影响。
