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Abstract：
The 2013-2016 Ebola virus disease epidemic and the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic galvanized tremendous growth in models for emerging zoonotic and vector-borne viruses. Therefore, we have reviewed the main goals and methods of models to guide scientists and decision-makers. The elements of models for emerging viruses vary across spectrums: from understanding the past to forecasting the future, using data across space and time, and using statistical versus mechanistic methods. Hybrid/ensemble models and artificial intelligence offer new opportunities for modeling. Despite this progress, challenges remain in translating models into actionable decisions, particularly in areas at highest risk for viral disease outbreaks. To address this issue, we must identify gaps in models for specific viruses, strengthen validation, and involve policymakers in model development.
摘要：
2013-2016年埃博拉病毒病流行和2019年冠状病毒病流行激发了新兴的人畜共患和媒介传播病毒模型的巨大增长。因此,我们回顾了模型的主要目标和方法，以指导科学家和决策者。新兴病毒的模型元素因频谱而异：从了解过去到预测未来，使用跨空间和时间的数据，并使用统计与机械方法。混合/集成模型和人工智能为建模提供了新的机会。尽管取得了这些进展,将模型转化为可操作的决策仍然存在挑战，特别是在病毒性疾病爆发风险最高的地区。为了解决这个问题，我们必须找出特定病毒模型的差距，加强验证，并让决策者参与模型开发。
