Abstract：
Global warming has significantly altered fish distribution patterns in the ocean, shifting towards higher latitudes and deeper waters. This is particularly relevant in high-latitude marine ecosystems, where climate-driven environmental changes are occurring at higher rates than the global average. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are increasingly being used for predicting distributional shifts in habitat suitability for marine species as a response to climate change. Here, we used SDMs to project habitat suitability changes for a range of high-latitude, pelagic and benthopelagic commercial fish species and crustaceans (10 species); from 1850 to two future climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6: low climate forcing; and SSP5-8.5: high climate forcing). The study includes 11 Large Marine Ecosystems (LME) spanning South America, Southern Africa, Australia, and New Zealand. We identified declining and southward-shifting patterns in suitable habitat areas for most species, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario and for some species such as Argentine hake (Merluccius hubbsi) in South America, or snoek (Thyrsites atun) off Southern Africa. Geographical constraints will likely result in species from Southern Africa, Australia, and New Zealand facing the most pronounced habitat losses due to rising sea surface temperatures (SST). In contrast, South American species might encounter greater opportunities for migrating southward. Additionally, the SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts that South America will be more environmentally stable compared to other regions. Overall, our findings suggest that the Patagonian shelf could serve as a climate refuge, due to higher environmental stability highlighting the importance of proactive management strategies in this area for species conservation. This study significantly contributes to fisheries and conservation management, providing valuable insights for future protection efforts in the Southern Hemisphere.
摘要：
全球变暖显著改变了海洋中鱼类的分布格局,向高纬度和更深的水域转移。这在高纬度海洋生态系统中尤其重要，气候驱动的环境变化以高于全球平均水平的速度发生。物种分布模型（SDM）越来越多地用于预测海洋物种对气候变化的栖息地适应性的分布变化。这里,我们使用SDM来预测一系列高纬度地区的栖息地适宜性变化，中上层和底栖商品鱼类和甲壳类动物（10种）；从1850年到两个未来的气候变化情景（SSP1-2.6：低气候强迫；SSP5-8.5：高气候强迫）。该研究包括11个横跨南美洲的大型海洋生态系统(LME)，南部非洲,澳大利亚,和新西兰。我们确定了大多数物种在合适的栖息地区域的下降和南移模式，特别是在SSP5-8.5的情况下，对于某些物种，例如南美的阿根廷哈克（Merlucciushubbsi），或南非附近的斯诺克（Thyrsitesatun）。地理限制可能会导致来自南部非洲的物种，澳大利亚,由于海面温度（SST）上升，新西兰面临最明显的栖息地损失。相比之下,南美物种可能会遇到更大的向南迁移的机会。此外,SSP5-8.5情景预测，与其他地区相比，南美将更加环境稳定。总的来说,我们的研究结果表明，巴塔哥尼亚架子可以作为气候避难所，由于更高的环境稳定性，突出了该地区积极管理策略对物种保护的重要性。这项研究大大有助于渔业和养护管理，为南半球未来的保护工作提供有价值的见解。
