Abstract：
BACKGROUND: The spread of vector-borne infectious diseases is determined, among other things, by temperature. Thus, climate change will have an influence on their global distribution. In the future, Europe will approach the temperature optimum for the transmission of ZIKV and CHIKV. Climate scenarios and climate models can be used to depict future climatic changes and to draw conclusions about future risk areas for vector-borne infectious diseases.
METHODS: Based on the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios, a geospatial analysis was carried out for the future temperature suitability of ZIKV and CHIKV in Europe. The results were presented in maps and the percentage of the affected areas calculated.
RESULTS: Due to rising temperatures, the risk areas for transmission of ZIKV and CHIKV spread in both RCP scenarios. For CHIKV transmission, Spain, Portugal, the Mediterranean coast and areas near the Black Sea are mainly affected. Due to high temperatures, large areas throughout Europe are at risk for ZIKV and CHIKV transmission.
CONCLUSIONS: Temperature is only one of many factors influencing the spread of vector-borne infectious diseases. Nevertheless, the representation of risk areas on the basis of climate scenarios allows an assessment of future risk development. Monitoring and adaptation strategies are indispensable for coping with and containing possible future autochthonous transmissions and epidemics in Europe.
METHODS: Based on the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios, a geospatial analysis was carried out for the future temperature suitability of ZIKV and CHIKV in Europe. The results were presented in maps and the percentage of the affected areas calculated.
RESULTS: Due to rising temperatures, the risk areas for transmission of ZIKV and CHIKV spread in both RCP scenarios. For CHIKV transmission, Spain, Portugal, the Mediterranean coast and areas near the Black Sea are mainly affected. Due to high temperatures, large areas throughout Europe are at risk for ZIKV and CHIKV transmission.
CONCLUSIONS: Temperature is only one of many factors influencing the spread of vector-borne infectious diseases. Nevertheless, the representation of risk areas on the basis of climate scenarios allows an assessment of future risk development. Monitoring and adaptation strategies are indispensable for coping with and containing possible future autochthonous transmissions and epidemics in Europe.
摘要：
背景：确定了媒介传播传染病的传播，除其他外，根据温度。因此，气候变化将对其全球分布产生影响。在未来,欧洲将接近ZIKV和CHIKV传输的最佳温度。气候情景和气候模型可用于描述未来的气候变化，并得出有关媒介传播传染病未来风险领域的结论。
方法：基于RCP4.5和RCP8.5气候情景，对ZIKV和CHIKV在欧洲的未来温度适用性进行了地理空间分析。结果以地图形式显示，并计算受影响地区的百分比。
结果：由于温度升高，ZIKV和CHIKV传播的风险区域在两种RCP情况下都有传播。对于CHIKV变速器，西班牙,葡萄牙,地中海沿岸和黑海附近地区受到主要影响。由于高温,整个欧洲的大片地区都面临ZIKV和CHIKV传播的风险。
结论：温度只是影响媒介传播传染病传播的众多因素之一。然而，根据气候情景表示风险区域，可以评估未来的风险发展。监测和适应战略对于应对和遏制欧洲未来可能的本地传播和流行病是不可或缺的。
方法：基于RCP4.5和RCP8.5气候情景，对ZIKV和CHIKV在欧洲的未来温度适用性进行了地理空间分析。结果以地图形式显示，并计算受影响地区的百分比。
结果：由于温度升高，ZIKV和CHIKV传播的风险区域在两种RCP情况下都有传播。对于CHIKV变速器，西班牙,葡萄牙,地中海沿岸和黑海附近地区受到主要影响。由于高温,整个欧洲的大片地区都面临ZIKV和CHIKV传播的风险。
结论：温度只是影响媒介传播传染病传播的众多因素之一。然而，根据气候情景表示风险区域，可以评估未来的风险发展。监测和适应战略对于应对和遏制欧洲未来可能的本地传播和流行病是不可或缺的。
