PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
As the world becomes ever more connected, the chance of pandemics increases as well. The recent COVID-19 pandemic and the concurrent global mass vaccine roll-out provides an ideal setting to learn from and refine our understanding of infectious disease models for better future preparedness. In this review, we systematically analyze and categorize mathematical models that have been developed to design optimal vaccine prioritization strategies of an initially limited vaccine. As older individuals are disproportionately affected by COVID-19, the focus is on models that take age explicitly into account. The lower mobility and activity level of older individuals gives rise to non-trivial trade-offs. Secondary research questions concern the optimal time interval between vaccine doses and spatial vaccine distribution. This review showcases the effect of various modeling assumptions on model outcomes. A solid understanding of these relationships yields better infectious disease models and thus public health decisions during the next pandemic.
摘要：
随着世界变得越来越紧密，大流行的机会也增加了。最近的COVID-19大流行和同时进行的全球大规模疫苗推广为学习和完善我们对传染病模型的理解提供了理想的环境，以更好地做好未来的准备。在这次审查中,我们系统地分析和分类已开发的数学模型，以设计最初有限疫苗的最佳疫苗优先策略。由于老年人不成比例地受到COVID-19的影响，重点是明确考虑年龄的模型。老年人的流动性和活动水平较低，这引起了不小的权衡。次要研究问题涉及疫苗剂量和空间疫苗分布之间的最佳时间间隔。这篇综述展示了各种建模假设对模型结果的影响。对这些关系的深入了解会产生更好的传染病模型，从而在下一次大流行期间做出公共卫生决策。
