Abstract：
This study investigated land use and land cover changes in the Gauteng Province of South Africa with emphasis on wetland ecosystems. Using Landsat images and various image manipulation software such as ArcGIS and ENVI, this study conducted a predictive analysis of the potential state of wetland ecosystems in the Gauteng Province of South Africa by year 2040, using illegal dumping trends in the last 20 years. Based on this methodological framework, it is found that continued illegal dumping trends would lead to an almost total disappearance of wetlands in the study area by 2040. It is argued that despite the pro-environmental initiatives introduced in the early 2000s to conserve wetlands in South Africa, wetland deterioration has increased rapidly due to the associated methodological flaws, which further supports the findings of this study. Ultimately, it is recommended that a collaborative approach to wetland conservation, and a robust methodological shift are required to mitigate the threats faced by wetlands in the Gauteng Province of South Africa, and the model can be deployed across developing countries.
摘要：
这项研究调查了南非豪登省的土地利用和土地覆盖变化，重点是湿地生态系统。使用Landsat图像和各种图像处理软件，如ArcGIS和ENVI，这项研究利用过去20年的非法倾倒趋势，对2040年南非豪登省湿地生态系统的潜在状况进行了预测分析。基于这个方法论框架，研究发现，到2040年，持续的非法倾倒趋势将导致研究区湿地几乎完全消失。有人认为，尽管在2000年代初期为保护南非的湿地而采取了有利于环境的举措，由于相关的方法论缺陷，湿地退化迅速增加，这进一步支持了这项研究的发现。最终,建议采用协作方式保护湿地，在南非豪登省，需要采取强有力的方法来减轻湿地面临的威胁，该模型可以在发展中国家部署。
