Abstract：
Ixodes ricinus is the most medically relevant tick species in Europe because it transmits the pathogens that cause Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Northern Spain represents the southernmost margin of its main European range and has the highest rate of Lyme borreliosis hospitalisations in the country. Currently, the environmental determinants of the spatiotemporal patterns of I. ricinus abundance remain unknown in this region and these may differ from drivers in highly favourable areas for the species in Europe. Therefore, our study aimed to understand the main factors modulating questing I. ricinus population dynamics to map abundance patterns in northern Spain. From 2012 to 2014, monthly/fortnightly samplings were conducted at 13 sites in two regions of northern Spain to estimate spatiotemporal variation in I. ricinus questing abundance. Local abundance of I. ricinus was modelled in relation to variation in local biotic and abiotic environmental conditions by constructing generalised linear mixed models with a zero-inflated negative binomial distribution for overdispersed data. The different developmental stages of I. ricinus were most active at different times of the year. Adults and nymphs showed a peak of abundance in spring, while questing larvae were more frequent in summer. The main determinants affecting the spatiotemporal abundance of the different stages were related to humidity and temperature. For adults and larvae, summer seemed to be the most influential period for their abundance, while for nymphs, winter conditions and those of the preceding months seemed to be determining factors. The highest abundances of nymphs and adults were predicted for the regions of northern Spain with the highest rate of Lyme borreliosis hospitalisations. Our models could be the basis on which to build more accurate predictive models to identify the spatiotemporal windows of greatest potential interaction between animals/humans and I. ricinus that may lead to the transmission of I. ricinus-borne pathogens.
摘要：
蓖麻是欧洲医学上最相关的蜱物种，因为它传播引起莱姆病和蜱传脑炎的病原体。西班牙北部是其主要欧洲范围的最南端，是该国莱姆病住院率最高的地区。目前,在该地区，蓖麻病毒丰度时空模式的环境决定因素仍然未知，这些因素可能与欧洲该物种高度有利地区的驱动因素不同。因此,我们的研究旨在了解调节调查I.ricinus种群动态的主要因素，以绘制西班牙北部的丰度模式。从2012年到2014年，在西班牙北部两个地区的13个地点进行了每月/每两周的采样，以估算蓖麻的时空变化。通过构建具有零膨胀负二项分布的广义线性混合模型，针对过度分散的数据，将蓖麻的局部丰度与局部生物和非生物环境条件的变化进行了建模。蓖麻的不同发育阶段在一年中的不同时期最为活跃。成年和若虫在春季表现出丰富的高峰，而探查幼虫在夏季更为频繁。影响不同阶段时空丰度的主要决定因素与湿度和温度有关。对于成虫和幼虫，夏天似乎是他们富足最有影响力的时期，而对于若虫来说，冬季和前几个月的条件似乎是决定因素。预计西班牙北部莱姆病住院率最高的地区若虫和成虫的丰度最高。我们的模型可能是建立更准确的预测模型的基础，以确定动物/人类和蓖麻之间最大潜在相互作用的时空窗口。
