PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
The increasingly frequent occurrence of urban heatwaves has become a significant threat to human health. To quantitatively analyze changes in heatwave characteristics and to investigate the return periods of future heatwaves in Wuhan City, China, this study extracted 9 heatwave definitions and divided them into 3 mortality risk levels to identify and analyze historical observations and future projections of heatwaves. The copula functions were employed to derive the joint distribution of heatwave severity and duration and to analyze the co-occurrence return periods. The results demonstrate the following. (1) As the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions increases, the severity of heatwaves intensifies, and the occurrence of heatwaves increases significantly; moreover, a longer duration of heatwaves correlated with higher risk levels in each emission scenario. (2) Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions result in significantly shorter heatwave co-occurrence return periods at each level of risk. (3) In the 3 risk levels under each emission scenario, the co-occurrence return periods for heatwaves become longer as heatwave severity intensifies and duration increases. Under the influence of climate change, regional-specific early warning systems for heatwaves are necessary and crucial for policymakers to reduce heat-related mortality risks in the population, especially among vulnerable groups.
摘要：
城市热浪的日益频繁发生已成为人类健康的重大威胁。为定量分析热浪特征变化,调查武汉市未来热浪重现期,中国,这项研究提取了9个热浪定义，并将其分为3个死亡风险水平，以识别和分析热浪的历史观察和未来预测。使用copula函数得出热浪严重程度和持续时间的联合分布，并分析共现重现期。结果证明如下。（1）随着温室气体排放浓度的增加，热浪的严重程度加剧，热浪的发生显著增加；此外，在每个排放情景中，较长持续时间的热浪与较高的风险水平相关。（2）温室气体排放浓度的增加导致每个风险级别的热浪共现重现期明显缩短。(3)在每个排放情景下的3个风险级别中，随着热浪严重程度的加剧和持续时间的增加，热浪的共现重现期变得更长。在气候变化的影响下，针对特定区域的热浪预警系统对于决策者降低人口中热相关死亡风险至关重要，尤其是弱势群体。
