Abstract：
Livestock and poultry products are an essential human food source. However, the rapid development of the livestock sector (LS) has caused it to become a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Consequently, investigating the spatio-temporal characteristics and evolution of GHG emissions is crucial to facilitate the green development of the LS and achieve \"peak carbon and carbon neutrality\". This study combined life cycle assessment (LCA) with the IPCC Tier II method to construct a novel GHG emissions inventory. The GHG emissions of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2021 were calculated, and their spatio-temporal characteristics were revealed. Then, the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) model was used to identify the main driving factors of GHG emissions in six regions of China and explore the emission reduction potential. The results showed that GHG emissions increased and then decreased from 2000 to 2021, following a gradual and steady trend. The peak of 628.55 Mt CO2-eq was reached in 2006. The main GHG-producing segments were enteric fermentation, slaughtering and processing, and manure management, accounting for 45.39 %, 26.34 %, and 23.08 % of total GHG emissions, respectively. Overall, the center of gravity of GHG emissions in China migrated northward, with spatial aggregation observed since 2016. The high emission intensity regions were mainly located west of the \"Hu Huanyong line\". Economic efficiency and emissions intensity were the main drivers of GHG emissions. Under the baseline scenario, GHG emissions are not projected to peak until 2050. Therefore, urgent action is needed to promote the low-carbon green development of the LS in China. The results can serve as scientific references for the macro-prevention and control of GHG emissions, aiding strategic decision-making. Additionally, they can provide new ideas for GHG accounting in China and other countries around the world.
摘要：
家畜和家禽产品是人类必不可少的食物来源。然而,畜牧业（LS）的快速发展使其成为温室气体（GHG）排放的重要来源。因此,研究温室气体排放的时空特征和演变对于促进LS的绿色发展和实现“峰值碳和碳中和”至关重要。本研究将生命周期评估（LCA）与IPCCTierII方法相结合，以构建新型的温室气体排放清单。计算了2000-2021年中国31个省份的温室气体排放量,并揭示了它们的时空特征。然后，回归对人口的随机影响，富裕,利用STIRPAT(STIRPAT)模型对中国6个地区温室气体排放的主要驱动因素进行了识别,并探讨了减排潜力。结果表明，2000年至2021年，温室气体排放量呈先增加后减少的趋势，呈逐步稳定的趋势。2006年达到628.55MtCO2-eq的峰值。主要产生温室气体的环节是肠道发酵，屠宰和加工，和粪肥管理，占45.39%,26.34%,温室气体排放总量的23.08%，分别。总的来说,中国温室气体排放的重心向北迁移，自2016年以来观察到空间聚集。高发射强度区域主要位于“胡焕永线”以西。经济效率和排放强度是温室气体排放的主要驱动因素。在基线场景下，温室气体排放量预计到2050年才会达到峰值。因此,迫切需要采取行动，促进中国LS的低碳绿色发展。研究结果可为温室气体排放的宏观防治提供科学参考,协助战略决策。此外,它们可以为中国和世界其他国家的温室气体核算提供新的思路。
