Abstract：
BACKGROUND: A large increase in new cancer cases is predicted worldwide, due to population growth, ageing and increased cancer risk. The age distribution of the Icelandic population is different from the other Nordic countries. The purpose of this study was to predict the number of new cancer cases in Iceland and other Nordic countries, and cancer survivors in Iceland, up to the year 2040.
METHODS: Information on cancer diagnoses was retrieved from The Icelandic Cancer Registry and information on population projections from Statistics Iceland. Well known methods for population projection were used to predict the number of new cancer cases in 2040, but adjusted to consider Icelandic circumstances. It is also based on more recent data than is accessible elsewhere. Three different methods were used to estimate the number of survivors in 2040 and are presented here for the first time.
RESULTS: In 2040 the predicted yearly average number of new cancer cases in Iceland will be up to 2,903 [95% CI 2.841-2.956], a 57% increase compared with 2022. The increase is higher in Iceland than in other Nordic countries (Norway 41%, Sweden 24%, Denmark 23%, Finland 21%). In 2022, the number of cancer survivors was around 17,500 and is predicted to be between 24,500 and 31,000 in 2040.
CONCLUSIONS: The main reason for the predicted increase of cancer cases and survivors is population trends, especially the ageing of the population. This expected increase in the number of cancer patients and improved survival will increase the demand for healthcare.
METHODS: Information on cancer diagnoses was retrieved from The Icelandic Cancer Registry and information on population projections from Statistics Iceland. Well known methods for population projection were used to predict the number of new cancer cases in 2040, but adjusted to consider Icelandic circumstances. It is also based on more recent data than is accessible elsewhere. Three different methods were used to estimate the number of survivors in 2040 and are presented here for the first time.
RESULTS: In 2040 the predicted yearly average number of new cancer cases in Iceland will be up to 2,903 [95% CI 2.841-2.956], a 57% increase compared with 2022. The increase is higher in Iceland than in other Nordic countries (Norway 41%, Sweden 24%, Denmark 23%, Finland 21%). In 2022, the number of cancer survivors was around 17,500 and is predicted to be between 24,500 and 31,000 in 2040.
CONCLUSIONS: The main reason for the predicted increase of cancer cases and survivors is population trends, especially the ageing of the population. This expected increase in the number of cancer patients and improved survival will increase the demand for healthcare.
摘要：
背景：预计全球新癌症病例将大幅增加，由于人口增长,衰老和癌症风险增加。冰岛人口的年龄分布与其他北欧国家不同。这项研究的目的是预测冰岛和其他北欧国家的新癌症病例数，冰岛的癌症幸存者，到2040年。
方法：有关癌症诊断的信息来自冰岛癌症登记处，有关人口预测的信息来自冰岛统计局。众所周知的人口预测方法被用来预测2040年新癌症病例的数量，但根据冰岛的情况进行了调整。它还基于比其他地方可访问的更新的数据。使用三种不同的方法来估计2040年的幸存者人数，并在此首次介绍。
结果：在2040年，预计冰岛的年平均新癌症病例将达到2,903例[95％CI2.841-2.956]，与2022年相比增长57%。冰岛的增幅高于其他北欧国家(挪威41%，瑞典24%,丹麦23%,芬兰21%）。2022年，癌症幸存者的人数约为17,500，预计2040年将在24,500至31,000之间。
结论：预测癌症病例和幸存者增加的主要原因是人口趋势，尤其是人口老龄化。癌症患者数量的预期增加和生存率的提高将增加对医疗保健的需求。
方法：有关癌症诊断的信息来自冰岛癌症登记处，有关人口预测的信息来自冰岛统计局。众所周知的人口预测方法被用来预测2040年新癌症病例的数量，但根据冰岛的情况进行了调整。它还基于比其他地方可访问的更新的数据。使用三种不同的方法来估计2040年的幸存者人数，并在此首次介绍。
结果：在2040年，预计冰岛的年平均新癌症病例将达到2,903例[95％CI2.841-2.956]，与2022年相比增长57%。冰岛的增幅高于其他北欧国家(挪威41%，瑞典24%,丹麦23%,芬兰21%）。2022年，癌症幸存者的人数约为17,500，预计2040年将在24,500至31,000之间。
结论：预测癌症病例和幸存者增加的主要原因是人口趋势，尤其是人口老龄化。癌症患者数量的预期增加和生存率的提高将增加对医疗保健的需求。
