Mesh : Aedes / physiology growth & development Animals Ecosystem Europe Climate Change Asia Mosquito Vectors / physiology growth & development Larva / physiology growth & development Pupa / growth & development physiology Seasons

来  源:   DOI:10.4103/jvbd.jvbd_143_23

Abstract:
UNASSIGNED: The range of Aedes albopictus, the most important vector mosquito in Western Eurasia is growing due to climate change. However, it is not known how it will influence the habitats occupied by the species and its environmental fitness within its future range.
METHODS: To study this question, the habitat characteristic of the mosquito was investigated for 2081-2100.
RESULTS: The models suggest a notable future spread of the mosquito in the direction of Northern Europe and the parallel northward and westward shift of the southern and eastern potential occurrences of the mosquito. The models suggest a notable increase in generation numbers in the warmest quarter, which can reach 4-5 generations in the peri-Mediterranean region. However, both the joint survival rate of larvae and pupae and the number of survival days of adults in the warmest quarter exhibit decreasing values, as does the potential disappearance of the mosquito in the southern regions of Europe and Asia Minor, along with the growing atmospheric CO2 concentration-based scenarios.
UNASSIGNED: While in 1970-2000 Aedes albopictus mainly occupied the hot and warm summer temperate regions of Europe, the species will inhabit dominantly the cool summer temperate (oceanic) and the humid continental climate territories of North and North-Eastern Europe in 2081-2100.
摘要:
白纹伊蚊的范围,由于气候变化,欧亚大陆西部最重要的媒介蚊子正在增长。然而,目前尚不清楚它将如何影响该物种所占据的栖息地及其在未来范围内的环境适应性。
方法:要研究这个问题,调查了2081-2100年蚊子的栖息地特征。
结果:这些模型表明,蚊子在北欧方向的未来明显传播,以及蚊子的南部和东部潜在发生的平行向北和向西转移。这些模型表明,在最温暖的季度,发电量显着增加,在地中海地区可以达到4-5代。然而,幼虫和蛹的联合存活率和最热季度成虫的存活天数都表现出下降的值,欧洲南部和小亚细亚地区的蚊子可能消失,随着大气二氧化碳浓度不断增长的情景。
虽然在1970-2000年,白纹伊蚊主要占据了欧洲炎热和温暖的夏季温带地区,2081-2100年,该物种将主要居住在北欧和北欧的夏季凉爽温带(海洋)和潮湿的大陆性气候地区。
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