PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
BACKGROUND: To control resurging infectious diseases like mumps, it is necessary to resort to effective control and preventive measures. These measures include increasing vaccine coverage, providing the community with advice on how to reduce exposure, and closing schools. To justify such intervention, it is important to understand how well each of these measures helps to limit transmission.
METHODS: In this paper, we propose a simple SEILR (susceptible-exposed-symptomatically infectious-asymptomatically infectious-recovered) model by using a novel transmission rate function to incorporate temperature, humidity, and closing school factors. This new transmission rate function allows us to verify the impact of each factor either separately or combined. Using reported mumps cases from 2004 to 2018 in the mainland of China, we perform data fitting and parameter estimation to evaluate the basic reproduction number R 0 . As a wide range of one-dose measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine programs in China started only in 2008, we use different vaccination proportions for the first Stage I period (from 2004 to 2008) and the second Stage II period (from 2009 to 2018). This allows us to verify the importance of higher vaccine coverage with a possible second dose of MMR vaccine.
RESULTS: We find that the basic reproduction number R 0 is generally between 1 and 3. We then use the Akaike Information Criteria to assess the extent to which each of the three factors contributed to the spread of mumps. The findings suggest that the impact of all three factors is substantial, with temperature having the most significant impact, followed by school opening and closing, and finally humidity.
CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the strategy of increasing vaccine coverage, changing micro-climate (temperature and humidity), and closing schools can greatly reduce mumps transmission.
METHODS: In this paper, we propose a simple SEILR (susceptible-exposed-symptomatically infectious-asymptomatically infectious-recovered) model by using a novel transmission rate function to incorporate temperature, humidity, and closing school factors. This new transmission rate function allows us to verify the impact of each factor either separately or combined. Using reported mumps cases from 2004 to 2018 in the mainland of China, we perform data fitting and parameter estimation to evaluate the basic reproduction number R 0 . As a wide range of one-dose measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine programs in China started only in 2008, we use different vaccination proportions for the first Stage I period (from 2004 to 2008) and the second Stage II period (from 2009 to 2018). This allows us to verify the importance of higher vaccine coverage with a possible second dose of MMR vaccine.
RESULTS: We find that the basic reproduction number R 0 is generally between 1 and 3. We then use the Akaike Information Criteria to assess the extent to which each of the three factors contributed to the spread of mumps. The findings suggest that the impact of all three factors is substantial, with temperature having the most significant impact, followed by school opening and closing, and finally humidity.
CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the strategy of increasing vaccine coverage, changing micro-climate (temperature and humidity), and closing schools can greatly reduce mumps transmission.
摘要：
背景：为了控制腮腺炎等传染病的复发，有必要采取有效的控制和预防措施。这些措施包括提高疫苗覆盖率，向社区提供如何减少接触的建议，关闭学校。为了证明这种干预是合理的，重要的是要了解这些措施对限制传播有多好。
方法：在本文中，我们提出了一个简单的SEILR（易感暴露症状感染-渐近感染恢复）模型，通过使用一个新的传输速率函数来纳入温度，湿度,湿度关闭学校的因素。这个新的传输速率函数允许我们单独或组合地验证每个因素的影响。使用2004年至2018年中国大陆报告的腮腺炎病例，我们进行数据拟合和参数估计来评估基本再现数R0。作为一种广泛的单剂量麻疹，腮腺炎,和风疹(MMR)疫苗计划在中国仅在2008年开始,我们在第一阶段(2004年至2008年)和第二阶段(2009年至2018年)使用不同的疫苗接种比例.这使我们能够验证使用可能的第二剂MMR疫苗提高疫苗覆盖率的重要性。
结果：我们发现基本再现数R0通常在1到3之间。然后，我们使用Akaike信息标准来评估这三个因素中的每一个对腮腺炎传播的贡献程度。研究结果表明，这三个因素的影响是巨大的，温度影响最大，其次是学校的开放和关闭，最后是湿度。
结论：我们得出结论，增加疫苗覆盖率的策略，变化的微气候（温度和湿度），关闭学校可以大大减少腮腺炎的传播。
方法：在本文中，我们提出了一个简单的SEILR（易感暴露症状感染-渐近感染恢复）模型，通过使用一个新的传输速率函数来纳入温度，湿度,湿度关闭学校的因素。这个新的传输速率函数允许我们单独或组合地验证每个因素的影响。使用2004年至2018年中国大陆报告的腮腺炎病例，我们进行数据拟合和参数估计来评估基本再现数R0。作为一种广泛的单剂量麻疹，腮腺炎,和风疹(MMR)疫苗计划在中国仅在2008年开始,我们在第一阶段(2004年至2008年)和第二阶段(2009年至2018年)使用不同的疫苗接种比例.这使我们能够验证使用可能的第二剂MMR疫苗提高疫苗覆盖率的重要性。
结果：我们发现基本再现数R0通常在1到3之间。然后，我们使用Akaike信息标准来评估这三个因素中的每一个对腮腺炎传播的贡献程度。研究结果表明，这三个因素的影响是巨大的，温度影响最大，其次是学校的开放和关闭，最后是湿度。
结论：我们得出结论，增加疫苗覆盖率的策略，变化的微气候（温度和湿度），关闭学校可以大大减少腮腺炎的传播。
