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Abstract：
In the context of the evolving landscape of reduction in carbon emissions and integration of renewable energy, this study uses system dynamics (SD) modeling to explore the interconnected dynamics of carbon trading (CT), tradable green certificate (TGC) trading, and electricity markets. Using differential equations with time delays, the study provides a comprehensive analysis of structural relationships and feedback mechanisms within and between these markets. Key findings reveal the intricate interplay between carbon prices, green certificate prices, and electricity prices under various coupling mechanisms. For example, under the three-market coupling mechanism, carbon trading prices stabilize around 150 Yuan/ton, while green certificate prices reach a peak of 0.45 Yuan/KWH, impacting electricity prices, which fluctuate between 0.33 and 1.09 Yuan / KWH during the simulation period. These quantitative results shed light on nuanced fluctuations in market prices and the dynamics of anticipated purchases and sales volumes within each market. The insights gleaned from this study offer valuable implications for policy makers and market stakeholders in navigating the complexities of carbon emission reduction strategies, the integration of renewable energy and market equilibrium. By understanding the dynamics of multi-market coupling, stakeholders can better formulate policies and strategies to achieve sustainable energy transitions and mitigate impacts of climate change.
摘要：
在不断变化的碳排放减少和可再生能源一体化的背景下，本研究使用系统动力学(SD)模型来探索碳交易(CT)的相互关联的动力学，可交易绿色证书(TGC)交易，电力市场。使用具有时滞的微分方程，该研究对这些市场内部和之间的结构关系和反馈机制进行了全面分析。主要发现揭示了碳价格之间错综复杂的相互作用，绿色证书价格，和各种耦合机制下的电价。例如,在三个市场耦合机制下，碳交易价格稳定在150元/吨左右，而绿色证书价格达到峰值0.45元/千瓦小时，影响电价，在模拟期间波动在0.33-1.09元/千瓦时之间。这些定量结果揭示了市场价格的细微差别波动以及每个市场内预期购买和销售量的动态。从这项研究中收集到的见解为决策者和市场利益相关者在导航碳减排策略的复杂性方面提供了有价值的启示。可再生能源与市场均衡的整合。通过了解多市场耦合的动态，利益相关者可以更好地制定政策和战略，以实现可持续的能源转型并减轻气候变化的影响。
