PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
The inequality in CO2 emissions from agricultural energy consumption is a major challenge for coordinating low-carbon agricultural development across regions in China. However, the evolutionary characteristics and driving factors of inequality in China\'s agricultural energy-related CO2 emissions are poorly understood. In response, the Kaya-Theil model was adopted to examine the three potential factors influencing CO2 emission inequality in China\'s agricultural energy consumption. The results revealed that, from 1997 to 2021, agricultural energy-related CO2 emissions per capita showed a significant upward trend, with prominent polarization and right-tailing phenomena. Overall, the inequality was on a downward trend, with the Theil index falling from 0.4109 in 1997 to 0.1957 in 2021. Meanwhile, the decomposition of the national inequality revealed that the within-group inequality declined from 0.3991 to 0.1634, which was greater than between-group inequality, based on zoning the 28 provinces into three grain production functional areas. As for the three kaya factors, the energy intensity contributed the most to the overall inequality, followed by the agricultural economic development and CO2 emission intensity. Based on these results, this study provided some potential strategies to reduce agricultural-related CO2 emissions.
摘要：
农业能源消费造成的二氧化碳排放不平等是中国各地区协调低碳农业发展的重大挑战。然而,中国农业能源相关CO2排放不平等的演化特征和驱动因素知之甚少。作为回应,采用Kaya-Theil模型考察了影响中国农业能源消费中CO2排放不平等的三个潜在因素。结果显示,从1997年到2021年，人均农业能源相关二氧化碳排放量呈现显著上升趋势，具有突出的极化和右拖尾现象。总的来说,不平等呈下降趋势,泰尔指数从1997年的0.4109下降到2021年的0.1957。同时,国家不平等的分解表明，群体内不平等从0.3991下降到0.1634，大于群体间不平等，在将28个省划分为三个粮食生产功能区的基础上。至于卡亚的三个因素，能源强度对整体不平等的贡献最大，其次是农业经济发展和CO2排放强度。基于这些结果,这项研究提供了一些减少农业相关二氧化碳排放的潜在策略。
