PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Internal displacement of populations due to armed conflicts can substantially impact a region\'s Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) and the efforts towards the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The objective of this study was to determine the effects of conflict-driven Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) on vegetation cover and environmental sustainability in the Kas locality of Darfur, Sudan. Supervised classification and change analysis were performed on Sentinel-2 satellite images for the years 2016 and 2022 using QGIS software. The Sentinel-2 Level 2A data were analysed using the Random Forest (RF) Machine Learning (ML) classifier. Five land cover types were successfully classified (agricultural land, vegetation cover, built-up area, sand, and bareland) with overall accuracies of more than 86% and Kappa coefficients greater than 0.74. The results revealed a 35.33% (-10.20 km2) decline in vegetation cover area over the six-year study period, equivalent to an average annual loss rate of -5.89% (-1.70 km2) of vegetation cover. In contrast, agricultural land and built-up areas increased by 17.53% (98.12 km2) and 60.53% (5.29 km2) respectively between the two study years. The trends of the changes among different LULC classes suggest potential influences of human activities especially the IDPs, natural processes, and a combination of both in the study area. This study highlights the impacts of IDPs on natural resources and land cover patterns in a conflict-affected region. It also offers pertinent data that can support decision-makers in restoring the affected areas and preventing further environmental degradation for sustainability.
摘要：
武装冲突导致的国内人口流离失所可能会对该地区的土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）以及实现可持续发展目标（SDGs）的努力产生重大影响。这项研究的目的是确定冲突驱动的国内流离失所者(IDPs)对达尔富尔卡斯地区植被覆盖和环境可持续性的影响,苏丹。使用QGIS软件对2016年和2022年的Sentinel-2卫星图像进行监督分类和变化分析。使用随机森林(RF)机器学习(ML)分类器分析前哨2级2A数据。成功分类了五种土地覆盖类型(农业用地，植被覆盖,建成区,沙子,和bareland)，总体准确度超过86%，Kappa系数大于0.74。结果表明，在六年的研究期间，植被覆盖面积下降了35.33％（-10.20km2），相当于植被覆盖率的年平均损失率为-5.89%(-1.70km2)。相比之下,在两个研究年度之间，农业用地和建成区分别增加了17.53％（98.12km2）和60.53％（5.29km2）。不同LULC类别之间的变化趋势表明人类活动尤其是国内流离失所者的潜在影响，自然过程,以及两者在研究区域的结合。这项研究强调了国内流离失所者对受冲突影响地区自然资源和土地覆盖模式的影响。它还提供了相关数据，可以支持决策者恢复受影响地区并防止进一步的环境退化以实现可持续性。
