Abstract：
BACKGROUND: A high intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is associated with the risk of several chronic diseases, including ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke. This study aimed to model the impact of a 20% tax on all SSBs for IHD and stroke among Brazilian adults.
METHODS: This was an ex-ante risk comparative study. The model applied a 20% tax on SSBs and projected the incidence, prevalence and mortality of IHD and stroke over a 20-year period (2019-39). Using data on consumption, previously published cross- and own-price elasticities of SSBs, and relative risk, we estimated changes in IHD and stroke burden.
RESULTS: Our model predicts that a 20% SSB tax may reduce new cases of IHD by ~13%, especially among women, and avert ~8% of the deaths attributable to IHD over 20 years. These results represent a decrease of 19 543 new cases and 8466 and 7274 fewer deaths in the period for men and women, respectively. Estimates of reduction in incidence, prevalence and deaths from stroke were not significant over 20 years.
CONCLUSIONS: Even under conservative assumptions, our study found that a small reduction in SSB consumption led to a substantial decrease in IHD incidence and mortality in Brazil.
METHODS: This was an ex-ante risk comparative study. The model applied a 20% tax on SSBs and projected the incidence, prevalence and mortality of IHD and stroke over a 20-year period (2019-39). Using data on consumption, previously published cross- and own-price elasticities of SSBs, and relative risk, we estimated changes in IHD and stroke burden.
RESULTS: Our model predicts that a 20% SSB tax may reduce new cases of IHD by ~13%, especially among women, and avert ~8% of the deaths attributable to IHD over 20 years. These results represent a decrease of 19 543 new cases and 8466 and 7274 fewer deaths in the period for men and women, respectively. Estimates of reduction in incidence, prevalence and deaths from stroke were not significant over 20 years.
CONCLUSIONS: Even under conservative assumptions, our study found that a small reduction in SSB consumption led to a substantial decrease in IHD incidence and mortality in Brazil.
摘要：
背景：含糖饮料（SSB）的高摄入量与几种慢性疾病的风险有关，包括缺血性心脏病（IHD）和中风。这项研究旨在模拟对巴西成年人IHD和中风的所有SSB征收20％税的影响。
方法：这是一项事前风险比较研究。该模型对SSB征收20%的税，并预测了发生率，20年期间IHD和卒中的患病率和死亡率(2019-39).使用消费数据，先前发布的SSB的交叉和自有价格弹性，和相对风险，我们估计了IHD和卒中负担的变化.
结果：我们的模型预测，20％的SSB税可能会使IHD的新病例减少约13％，尤其是女性，并在20年内避免约8%的IHD死亡。这些结果表明，在这一时期，男性和女性的新病例减少了19543例，死亡人数减少了8466例和7274例。分别。发病率降低的估计，卒中的患病率和死亡在20年内并不显著.
结论：即使在保守的假设下，我们的研究发现,在巴西,SSB消费的少量减少导致IHD发病率和死亡率大幅下降.
方法：这是一项事前风险比较研究。该模型对SSB征收20%的税，并预测了发生率，20年期间IHD和卒中的患病率和死亡率(2019-39).使用消费数据，先前发布的SSB的交叉和自有价格弹性，和相对风险，我们估计了IHD和卒中负担的变化.
结果：我们的模型预测，20％的SSB税可能会使IHD的新病例减少约13％，尤其是女性，并在20年内避免约8%的IHD死亡。这些结果表明，在这一时期，男性和女性的新病例减少了19543例，死亡人数减少了8466例和7274例。分别。发病率降低的估计，卒中的患病率和死亡在20年内并不显著.
结论：即使在保守的假设下，我们的研究发现,在巴西,SSB消费的少量减少导致IHD发病率和死亡率大幅下降.
