PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
It is so far unclear how the COVID-19 winter waves started and what should be done to prevent possible future waves. In this study, we deciphered the dynamic course of a winter wave in 2021 in Saxony, a state in Eastern Germany neighbouring the Czech Republic and Poland. The study was carried out through the integration of multiple virus genomic epidemiology approaches to track transmission chains, identify emerging variants and investigate dynamic changes in transmission clusters. For identified local variants of interest, functional evaluations were performed. Multiple long-lasting community transmission clusters have been identified acting as driving force for the winter wave 2021. Analysis of the dynamic courses of two representative clusters indicated a similar transmission pattern. However, the transmission cluster caused by a locally occurring new Delta variant AY.36.1 showed a distinct transmission pattern, and functional analyses revealed a replication advantage of it. This study indicated that long-lasting community transmission clusters starting since early autumn caused by imported or locally occurring variants all contributed to the development of the 2021 winter wave. The information we achieved might help future pandemic prevention.
摘要：
到目前为止，尚不清楚COVID-19冬季浪潮是如何开始的，以及应该做些什么来防止未来可能的浪潮。在这项研究中,我们破译了2021年萨克森州冬季浪潮的动态过程，德国东部的一个州，与捷克共和国和波兰相邻。这项研究是通过整合多种病毒基因组流行病学方法来追踪传播链，识别新出现的变种，并研究传播集群的动态变化。对于已确定的感兴趣的局部变体，进行功能评估。多个持久的社区传播集群已被确定为2021年冬季浪潮的驱动力。对两个代表性集群的动态过程的分析表明类似的传播模式。然而,由本地发生的新Delta变体AY.36.1引起的传输簇显示出不同的传输模式，功能分析揭示了它的复制优势。这项研究表明，自初秋以来由进口或本地发生的变异引起的持久社区传播集群都促成了2021年冬季浪潮的发展。我们获得的信息可能有助于未来的大流行预防。
