PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Climate change is a prominent factor reshaping the distribution of invasive species. Metcalfa pruinosa (Say 1830) (Hemiptera: Flatidae), native to North America, has invaded other continents and poses a serious threat to various agricultural crops and the human residential environment. Understanding the distribution of M. pruinosa based on climatic conditions is a critical first step to prevent its further invasion. Therefore, based on its occurrence records and associated environmental variables, a Maxent model was developed to predict suitable areas for this species in the present and future on a global scale. The model exhibited outstanding performance, with a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and true skill statistic values of 0.9329 and 0.926, respectively. The model also indicated that annual precipitation (Bio12) and max temperature of the warmest month (Bio5) were the key environmental variables limiting the distribution of M. pruinosa. Moreover, the model revealed that the current suitable area is 1.01 × 107 km2 worldwide, with southern China, southern Europe, and the eastern United States predicted to be the primary and highly suitable areas in the latter 2 regions. This area is expected to increase under future climate scenarios, mainly in the northern direction. The study\'s findings contribute to our understanding of climate change\'s impact on M. pruinosa distribution, and they will aid governments in developing appropriate pest management strategies, including global monitoring and strict quarantine measures.
摘要：
气候变化是重塑入侵物种分布的重要因素。Metcalfapruinosa(Say1830)(Hemptera:flatidae),原产于北美，入侵其他大陆，对各种农作物和人类居住环境构成严重威胁。根据气候条件了解pruinosa的分布是防止其进一步入侵的关键的第一步。因此,根据其发生记录和相关的环境变量，开发了Maxent模型，以在全球范围内预测当前和未来该物种的合适区域。该模型表现出突出的性能，受试者工作特征曲线下的平均面积和真实技能统计值分别为0.9329和0.926。该模型还表明，年降水量（Bio12）和最温暖月份的最高温度（Bio5）是限制M的关键环境变量。此外，该模型显示，目前全球范围内的适宜面积为1.01×107km2，中国南方,南欧,预计美国东部将是后两个地区的主要和高度适宜的地区。在未来的气候情景下，预计该区域将增加，主要是在北方。这项研究的发现有助于我们理解气候变化对金雀花分布的影响，他们将帮助政府制定适当的虫害管理策略，包括全球监测和严格的检疫措施。
