Abstract：
OBJECTIVE: This study examines whether changes in physical activity (PA) during the first year after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami (2011-2012) contributed to preventing the onset of future frailty among older survivors of the disaster.
METHODS: This study tracked 2561 physically active Japanese survivors aged ≥ 65 years (43.6% men; mean age 72.9 years) who had completed self-administered questionnaires in 2011 and 2012. PA levels for participants were classified into four categories based on ≥23 and <23 metabolic equivalent hours/week in 2011 and 2012: \"consistently low,\" \"decreasing,\" \"increasing,\" and \"consistently high.\" Frailty was defined as a Kihon Checklist score ≥ 5, which is used in the long-term care insurance system in Japan. Hazard ratios were calculated for the onset of frailty using a Cox proportional hazards model that fitted the proportional sub-distribution hazards regression model with weights for competing risks of death.
RESULTS: From 2012 to 2018, 283 men and 490 women developed frailty. Men with consistently high or increasing PA during the first year after the disaster had a lower risk of frailty. Furthermore, even increasing PA by walking for just 30 min/day prevented future frailty in men; however, this association between a change in PA and the decreased risk of frailty was not observed in women.
CONCLUSIONS: Older men who remained physically active or resumed PA at an early stage and at a low intensity, even after being physically inactive owing to the disaster, were able to prevent future frailty. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2024; 24: 563-570.
METHODS: This study tracked 2561 physically active Japanese survivors aged ≥ 65 years (43.6% men; mean age 72.9 years) who had completed self-administered questionnaires in 2011 and 2012. PA levels for participants were classified into four categories based on ≥23 and <23 metabolic equivalent hours/week in 2011 and 2012: \"consistently low,\" \"decreasing,\" \"increasing,\" and \"consistently high.\" Frailty was defined as a Kihon Checklist score ≥ 5, which is used in the long-term care insurance system in Japan. Hazard ratios were calculated for the onset of frailty using a Cox proportional hazards model that fitted the proportional sub-distribution hazards regression model with weights for competing risks of death.
RESULTS: From 2012 to 2018, 283 men and 490 women developed frailty. Men with consistently high or increasing PA during the first year after the disaster had a lower risk of frailty. Furthermore, even increasing PA by walking for just 30 min/day prevented future frailty in men; however, this association between a change in PA and the decreased risk of frailty was not observed in women.
CONCLUSIONS: Older men who remained physically active or resumed PA at an early stage and at a low intensity, even after being physically inactive owing to the disaster, were able to prevent future frailty. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2024; 24: 563-570.
摘要：
目的：本研究调查了东日本大地震和海啸（2011-2012）后第一年身体活动（PA）的变化是否有助于防止老年幸存者的未来衰弱。
方法：本研究追踪了2011年和2012年完成自我管理问卷的2561名年龄≥65岁的日本体力活动幸存者（43.6%男性；平均年龄72.9岁）。根据2011年和2012年的≥23和<23个代谢当量/周，参与者的PA水平分为四类：“持续低，\“\”递减，\"\"增加，“和”始终很高。“Failty被定义为KihonChecklist得分≥5，在日本的长期护理保险制度中使用。使用Cox比例风险模型计算衰弱发作的风险比，该模型将比例子分布风险回归模型与竞争死亡风险的权重拟合。
结果：从2012年到2018年，有283名男性和490名女性出现了虚弱。灾难发生后的第一年，PA持续升高或升高的男性的虚弱风险较低。此外，即使通过每天步行30分钟来增加PA，也可以防止男性未来的虚弱；然而，在女性中没有观察到PA变化与虚弱风险降低之间的这种关联.
结论：在早期和低强度保持体力活动或恢复PA的老年男性，即使在由于灾难而身体不活跃之后，能够防止未来的脆弱。GeriatrGerontolInt2024；••：••-•。
方法：本研究追踪了2011年和2012年完成自我管理问卷的2561名年龄≥65岁的日本体力活动幸存者（43.6%男性；平均年龄72.9岁）。根据2011年和2012年的≥23和<23个代谢当量/周，参与者的PA水平分为四类：“持续低，\“\”递减，\"\"增加，“和”始终很高。“Failty被定义为KihonChecklist得分≥5，在日本的长期护理保险制度中使用。使用Cox比例风险模型计算衰弱发作的风险比，该模型将比例子分布风险回归模型与竞争死亡风险的权重拟合。
结果：从2012年到2018年，有283名男性和490名女性出现了虚弱。灾难发生后的第一年，PA持续升高或升高的男性的虚弱风险较低。此外，即使通过每天步行30分钟来增加PA，也可以防止男性未来的虚弱；然而，在女性中没有观察到PA变化与虚弱风险降低之间的这种关联.
结论：在早期和低强度保持体力活动或恢复PA的老年男性，即使在由于灾难而身体不活跃之后，能够防止未来的脆弱。GeriatrGerontolInt2024；••：••-•。
