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Abstract：
California, a pioneer in EV adoption, has enacted ambitious electric vehicle (EV) policies that will generate a large burden on the state\'s electric distribution system. We investigate the statewide impact of uncontrolled EV charging on the electric distribution networks at a large scale and high granularity, by employing an EV charging profile projection that combines travel demand model, EV adoption model, and real-world EV charging data. We find a substantial need for infrastructure upgrades in 50% of feeders by 2035, and 67% of feeders by 2045. The distribution system across California must upgrade its capacity by 25 GW by 2045, corresponding to a cost between $6 and $20 billion. While the additional infrastructure cost drives the electricity price up, it is offset by the downward pressure from the growth of total electricity consumption and leads to a reduction in electricity rate between $0.01 and $0.06/kWh by 2045. We also find that overloading conditions are highly diverse spatially, with feeders in residential areas requiring twice as much upgrade compared to commercial areas. Our study provides a framework for evaluating EVs\' impact on the distribution grid and indicates the potential to reduce infrastructure upgrade costs by shifting home-charging demand. The imminent challenges confronting California serve as a microcosm of the forthcoming obstacles anticipated worldwide due to the prevailing global trend of EV adoption.
摘要：
加州,电动汽车采用的先驱，颁布了雄心勃勃的电动汽车（EV）政策，这将给该州的配电系统带来巨大负担。我们以大规模和高粒度调查了全州范围内不受控制的电动汽车充电对配电网络的影响，通过采用结合出行需求模型的电动汽车充电曲线预测，电动汽车采用模型，和真实世界的电动汽车充电数据。我们发现，到2035年，50%的馈线需要基础设施升级，到2045年，67%的馈线需要基础设施升级。到2045年，加州的配电系统必须将其容量提升25吉瓦，相当于60亿至200亿美元的成本。虽然额外的基础设施成本推动电价上涨，它被总用电量增长的下行压力所抵消，并导致到2045年电费减少0.01至0.06美元/千瓦时。我们还发现超载条件在空间上是高度不同的，与商业区相比，住宅区的馈线需要两倍的升级。我们的研究为评估电动汽车对配电网的影响提供了一个框架，并指出了通过改变家庭充电需求来降低基础设施升级成本的潜力。加州面临的迫在眉睫的挑战是由于电动汽车采用的普遍全球趋势而在全球范围内预期的即将到来的障碍的缩影。
