Abstract：
Perceptions of crime detection risk (e.g., risk of arrest) play an integral role in the criminal decision-making process. Yet, the sources of variation in those perceptions are not well understood. Do individuals respond to changes in legal policy or is perception of detection risk shaped like other perceptions-by experience, heuristics, and with biases? We applied a developmental perspective to study self-reported perception of detection risk. We test four hypotheses against data from the Dunedin Longitudinal Study (analytic sample of N = 985 New Zealanders), a study that spans 20 years of development (Ages 18-38, years 1990-2011). We reach four conclusions: (1) people form their perception of detection risk early in the life course; (2) perception of detection risk may be general rather than unique to each crime type; (3) population-level perceptions are stable between adolescence and adulthood; but (4) people update their perceptions when their life circumstances change. The importance of these findings for future theoretical and policy work is considered. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).
摘要：
对犯罪检测风险的感知(例如，逮捕风险)在刑事决策过程中起着不可或缺的作用。然而，这些感知变化的来源还没有得到很好的理解。个人是否会对法律政策的变化做出反应，或者对检测风险的感知是否像其他感知一样——根据经验，启发式，和偏见？我们应用了发展的观点来研究自我报告的检测风险感知。我们根据达尼丁纵向研究的数据（N=985新西兰人的分析样本）测试了四个假设，一项跨越20年发展的研究(18-38岁，1990-2011年)。我们得出四个结论：（1）人们在生命过程的早期就形成了对检测风险的感知；（2）对检测风险的感知可能是普遍的，而不是每种犯罪类型所独有的；（3）在青春期和成年期之间，人口水平的感知是稳定的；但是（4）当生活环境发生变化时，人们会更新自己的感知。考虑了这些发现对未来理论和政策工作的重要性。（PsycInfo数据库记录（c）2024APA，保留所有权利)。
