Abstract：
Lakes, as integral social-ecological systems, are hotspots for exploring climatic and anthropogenic impacts, with crucial pathways revealed by continuous sediment records. However, the response of multi-proxies in large shallow lakes to typical abrupt events and sustained drivers since the Anthropocene remains unclear. Here, we explored the driver-identification relationships between multi-proxy peaks and natural and anthropogenic events as well as the attribution of short-term perturbations and long-term pressures. To this end, sediment core records, socio-ecological data, and documented events from official records were integrated into a large shallow lake (Dongting Lake, China). Significant causal cascades and path effects (goodness-of-fit: 0.488; total effect: -1.10; p < .001) were observed among catchment environmental proxies, lake biogenic proxies, and mixed-source proxies. The peak-event identification rate (PEIR) and event-peak driving rate were proposed, and values of 28.57%-46.43% and 50%-81.25% were obtained, respectively. The incomplete accuracy of depicting event perturbations using sediment proxies was caused by various information filters both inside and outside the lake. PEIRs for compound events were 1.41 (±0.72) and 1.09 (±0.46) times greater than those for anthropogenic-dominated and natural-dominated events, respectively. Furthermore, socio-economic activity, hydrologic dynamics, land-use changes, and agriculture exerted significant and persistent pressures, cumulatively contributing 55.3%-80.9% to alterations in sediment proxies. Relatively synergistic or antagonistic trends in temporal contributions of these forces were observed after 2000, which were primarily attributed to the \"Grain for Green\" project and the Three Gorges Dam. This study represents one of the few investigations to distinguish the driver-response relationship of multiple proxies in large shallow lakes under typical event perturbations and long-term sustained pressures since the Anthropocene. The findings will help policymakers and managers address ecological perturbations triggered by climate change and human activities over long-term periods.
摘要：
Lakes,作为完整的社会生态系统，是探索气候和人为影响的热点，连续的沉积物记录揭示了关键的途径。然而,自人类世以来，大型浅水湖泊中的多代理对典型的突发性事件和持续驱动因素的反应尚不清楚。这里,我们探索了多代理峰与自然和人为事件之间的驱动-识别关系，以及短期扰动和长期压力的归因。为此,沉积物岩心记录,社会生态数据,并将官方记录中的记录事件整合到一个大型浅湖(洞庭湖，中国）。在集水区环境代理中观察到显著的因果级联和路径效应(拟合优度:0.488;总效应:-1.10;p<.001)，湖泊生物代理，和混合源代理。提出了峰值事件识别率(PEIR)和事件峰值驱动率,分别为28.57%-46.43%和50%-81.25%，分别。使用沉积物代理描绘事件扰动的不完全准确性是由湖内和湖外的各种信息过滤器引起的。复合事件的PEIR比人为主导和自然主导事件的PEIR高1.41（±0.72）和1.09（±0.46）倍，分别。此外，社会经济活动,水文动力学，土地利用变化，农业施加了巨大而持久的压力，累积贡献55.3%-80.9%的沉积物代理变化。在2000年之后，观察到这些力量的时间贡献相对协同或拮抗趋势，这主要归因于“绿色谷物”项目和三峡大坝。这项研究是为数不多的区分人类世以来典型事件扰动和长期持续压力下大型浅水湖泊中多个代理的驱动-响应关系的研究之一。这些发现将帮助决策者和管理者解决长期由气候变化和人类活动引发的生态扰动。
