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Abstract：
BACKGROUND: There are abundant studies on COVID-19 but few on its impact on hepatitis E. We aimed to assess the effect of the COVID-19 countermeasures on the pattern of hepatitis E incidence and explore the application of time series models in analyzing this pattern.
METHODS: Our pivotal idea was to fit a pre-COVID-19 model with data from before the COVID-19 outbreak and use the deviation between forecast values and actual values to reflect the effect of COVID-19 countermeasures. We analyzed the pattern of hepatitis E incidence in China from 2013 to 2018. We evaluated the fitting and forecasting capability of 3 methods before the COVID-19 outbreak. Furthermore, we employed these methods to construct pre-COVID-19 incidence models and compare post-COVID-19 forecasts with reality.
RESULTS: Before the COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese hepatitis E incidence pattern was overall stationary and seasonal, with a peak in March, a trough in October, and higher levels in winter and spring than in summer and autumn, annually. Nevertheless, post-COVID-19 forecasts from pre-COVID-19 models were extremely different from reality in sectional periods but congruous in others.
CONCLUSIONS: Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese hepatitis E incidence pattern has altered substantially, and the incidence has greatly decreased. The effect of the COVID-19 countermeasures on the pattern of hepatitis E incidence was temporary. The incidence of hepatitis E was anticipated to gradually revert to its pre-COVID-19 pattern.
METHODS: Our pivotal idea was to fit a pre-COVID-19 model with data from before the COVID-19 outbreak and use the deviation between forecast values and actual values to reflect the effect of COVID-19 countermeasures. We analyzed the pattern of hepatitis E incidence in China from 2013 to 2018. We evaluated the fitting and forecasting capability of 3 methods before the COVID-19 outbreak. Furthermore, we employed these methods to construct pre-COVID-19 incidence models and compare post-COVID-19 forecasts with reality.
RESULTS: Before the COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese hepatitis E incidence pattern was overall stationary and seasonal, with a peak in March, a trough in October, and higher levels in winter and spring than in summer and autumn, annually. Nevertheless, post-COVID-19 forecasts from pre-COVID-19 models were extremely different from reality in sectional periods but congruous in others.
CONCLUSIONS: Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese hepatitis E incidence pattern has altered substantially, and the incidence has greatly decreased. The effect of the COVID-19 countermeasures on the pattern of hepatitis E incidence was temporary. The incidence of hepatitis E was anticipated to gradually revert to its pre-COVID-19 pattern.
摘要：
背景：关于COVID-19的研究很多，但关于其对戊型肝炎的影响却很少。我们旨在评估COVID-19对策对戊型肝炎发病模式的影响，并探讨时间序列模型在分析该模式中的应用。
方法：我们的关键想法是将COVID-19爆发前的模型与COVID-19爆发前的数据进行拟合，并使用预测值与实际值之间的偏差来反映COVID-19对策的效果。我们分析了2013-2018年中国戊型肝炎的发病模式。我们在COVID-19爆发前评估了3种方法的拟合和预测能力。此外，我们采用这些方法构建了COVID-19前的发病率模型,并将COVID-19后的预测与现实进行了比较.
结果：在COVID-19爆发之前，中国戊型肝炎发病模式总体呈固定和季节性，在三月的高峰，十月的低谷，冬季和春季的水平高于夏季和秋季，每年。然而，来自前COVID-19模型的后COVID-19预测在截面上与现实截然不同，但在其他时期则一致。
结论：自COVID-19大流行以来，中国戊型肝炎的发病模式已经发生了很大的变化，发病率大大降低。COVID-19对策对戊型肝炎发病模式的影响是暂时的。预计戊型肝炎的发病率将逐渐恢复到COVID-19之前的模式。
方法：我们的关键想法是将COVID-19爆发前的模型与COVID-19爆发前的数据进行拟合，并使用预测值与实际值之间的偏差来反映COVID-19对策的效果。我们分析了2013-2018年中国戊型肝炎的发病模式。我们在COVID-19爆发前评估了3种方法的拟合和预测能力。此外，我们采用这些方法构建了COVID-19前的发病率模型,并将COVID-19后的预测与现实进行了比较.
结果：在COVID-19爆发之前，中国戊型肝炎发病模式总体呈固定和季节性，在三月的高峰，十月的低谷，冬季和春季的水平高于夏季和秋季，每年。然而，来自前COVID-19模型的后COVID-19预测在截面上与现实截然不同，但在其他时期则一致。
结论：自COVID-19大流行以来，中国戊型肝炎的发病模式已经发生了很大的变化，发病率大大降低。COVID-19对策对戊型肝炎发病模式的影响是暂时的。预计戊型肝炎的发病率将逐渐恢复到COVID-19之前的模式。
