PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
UNASSIGNED: Influenza A virus have a distinctive ability to exacerbate SARS-CoV-2 infection proven by in vitro studies. Furthermore, clinical evidence suggests that co-infection with COVID-19 and influenza not only increases mortality but also prolongs the hospitalization of patients. COVID-19 is in a small-scale recurrent epidemic, increasing the likelihood of co-epidemic with seasonal influenza. The impact of co-infection with influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 on the population remains unstudied.
UNASSIGNED: Here, we developed an age-specific compartmental model to simulate the co-circulation of COVID-19 and influenza and estimate the number of co-infected patients under different scenarios of prevalent virus type and vaccine coverage. To decrease the risk of the population developing severity, we investigated the minimum coverage required for the COVID-19 vaccine in conjunction with the influenza vaccine, particularly during co-epidemic seasons.
UNASSIGNED: Compared to the single epidemic, the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 exhibits a lower trend and a delayed peak when co-epidemic with influenza. Number of co-infection cases is higher when SARS-CoV-2 co-epidemic with Influenza A virus than that with Influenza B virus. The number of co-infected cases increases as SARS-CoV-2 becomes more transmissible. As the proportion of individuals vaccinated with the COVID-19 vaccine and influenza vaccines increases, the peak number of co-infected severe illnesses and the number of severe illness cases decreases and the peak time is delayed, especially for those >60 years old.
UNASSIGNED: To minimize the number of severe illnesses arising from co-infection of influenza and COVID-19, in conjunction vaccinations in the population are important, especially priority for the elderly.
UNASSIGNED: Here, we developed an age-specific compartmental model to simulate the co-circulation of COVID-19 and influenza and estimate the number of co-infected patients under different scenarios of prevalent virus type and vaccine coverage. To decrease the risk of the population developing severity, we investigated the minimum coverage required for the COVID-19 vaccine in conjunction with the influenza vaccine, particularly during co-epidemic seasons.
UNASSIGNED: Compared to the single epidemic, the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 exhibits a lower trend and a delayed peak when co-epidemic with influenza. Number of co-infection cases is higher when SARS-CoV-2 co-epidemic with Influenza A virus than that with Influenza B virus. The number of co-infected cases increases as SARS-CoV-2 becomes more transmissible. As the proportion of individuals vaccinated with the COVID-19 vaccine and influenza vaccines increases, the peak number of co-infected severe illnesses and the number of severe illness cases decreases and the peak time is delayed, especially for those >60 years old.
UNASSIGNED: To minimize the number of severe illnesses arising from co-infection of influenza and COVID-19, in conjunction vaccinations in the population are important, especially priority for the elderly.
摘要：
■经体外研究证实,甲型流感病毒具有加剧SARS-CoV-2感染的独特能力。此外，临床证据表明,COVID-19和流感合并感染不仅会增加死亡率,而且会延长患者的住院时间.COVID-19是一种小规模的复发性流行病，增加与季节性流感共同流行的可能性。流感病毒和SARS-CoV-2共同感染对人群的影响仍未研究。
■这里，我们开发了一种年龄特异性隔室模型来模拟COVID-19和流感的共同循环,并估计在流行病毒类型和疫苗覆盖率的不同情况下共同感染的患者数量.为了降低人口发展严重程度的风险，我们调查了COVID-19疫苗和流感疫苗所需的最低覆盖率，特别是在共同流行的季节。
■与单一流行病相比，当与流感共同流行时，SARS-CoV-2的传播呈现出较低的趋势和延迟的高峰。当SARS-CoV-2与甲型流感病毒共同流行时，合并感染病例数高于与乙型流感病毒的合并感染病例数。合并感染病例的数量随着SARS-CoV-2变得更容易传播而增加。随着接种COVID-19疫苗和流感疫苗的个体比例增加，合并感染的重症病例和重症病例的高峰数量减少，高峰时间推迟，特别是对于那些>60岁的人。
为了最大限度地减少因流感和COVID-19合并感染而引起的严重疾病的数量，在人群中联合接种疫苗很重要，尤其是老年人的优先事项。
■这里，我们开发了一种年龄特异性隔室模型来模拟COVID-19和流感的共同循环,并估计在流行病毒类型和疫苗覆盖率的不同情况下共同感染的患者数量.为了降低人口发展严重程度的风险，我们调查了COVID-19疫苗和流感疫苗所需的最低覆盖率，特别是在共同流行的季节。
■与单一流行病相比，当与流感共同流行时，SARS-CoV-2的传播呈现出较低的趋势和延迟的高峰。当SARS-CoV-2与甲型流感病毒共同流行时，合并感染病例数高于与乙型流感病毒的合并感染病例数。合并感染病例的数量随着SARS-CoV-2变得更容易传播而增加。随着接种COVID-19疫苗和流感疫苗的个体比例增加，合并感染的重症病例和重症病例的高峰数量减少，高峰时间推迟，特别是对于那些>60岁的人。
为了最大限度地减少因流感和COVID-19合并感染而引起的严重疾病的数量，在人群中联合接种疫苗很重要，尤其是老年人的优先事项。
