PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
The Lessons from Covid-19 Research Agenda offers a structure to study the COVID-19 pandemic and the pandemic response from a Global Catastrophic Risk (GCR) perspective. The agenda sets out the aims of our study, which is to investigate the key decisions and actions (or failures to decide or to act) that significantly altered the course of the pandemic, with the aim of improving disaster preparedness and response in the future. It also asks how we can transfer these lessons to other areas of (potential) global catastrophic risk management such as extreme climate change, radical loss of biodiversity and the governance of extreme risks posed by new technologies. Our study aims to identify key moments- \'inflection points\'- that significantly shaped the catastrophic trajectory of COVID-19. To that end this Research Agenda has identified four broad clusters where such inflection points are likely to exist: pandemic preparedness, early action, vaccines and non-pharmaceutical interventions. The aim is to drill down into each of these clusters to ascertain whether and how the course of the pandemic might have gone differently, both at the national and the global level, using counterfactual analysis. Four aspects are used to assess candidate inflection points within each cluster: 1. the information available at the time; 2. the decision-making processes used; 3. the capacity and ability to implement different courses of action, and 4. the communication of information and decisions to different publics. The Research Agenda identifies crucial questions in each cluster for all four aspects that should enable the identification of the key lessons from COVID-19 and the pandemic response.
摘要：
新冠肺炎研究议程的经验教训提供了一个结构，可以从全球灾难性风险(GCR)的角度研究新冠肺炎大流行和大流行应对措施。议程列出了我们研究的目标，调查重大改变大流行进程的关键决定和行动(或未能决定或采取行动)，旨在改善未来的备灾和响应。它还询问我们如何将这些经验教训转移到（潜在的）全球灾难性风险管理的其他领域，例如极端气候变化，生物多样性的彻底丧失和新技术带来的极端风险的治理。我们的研究旨在确定关键时刻-“拐点”-显著塑造了COVID-19的灾难性轨迹。为此，本研究议程确定了可能存在这种拐点的四个大集群:大流行准备，早期行动,疫苗和非药物干预。目的是深入研究这些集群中的每一个，以确定大流行的进程是否以及如何变化，在国家和全球层面，使用反事实分析。使用四个方面来评估每个聚类内的候选拐点:1.当时可用的信息；2.所使用的决策过程；3.实施不同行动方案的能力和能力，和4。向不同公众传达信息和决策。研究议程确定了每个分组中所有四个方面的关键问题，这些问题应该能够确定COVID-19和大流行应对措施的关键经验教训。
