Abstract：
Global climate change has significantly impacted the production of various crops, particularly long-term fruit-bearing plants such as citrus. This study analyzed the fruit quality of 12 citrus orchards (Citrus Sinensis L.Osbeck cv. Bingtang) in a subtropical region in Yunnan, China from 2014 to 2022. The results indicated that high rainfall (>220 mm) and low cumulative temperature (<3150 °C) promoted increases in titratable acidity (>1.8 %) in young fruits. As the fruits further expanded (with a horizontal diameter increasing from 50 to 65 mm), excessive rainfall (300-400 mm), lower cumulative temperature (<2400 °C), and a reduced diurnal temperature range (<10 °C) hindered decreases in titratable acidity. Conversely, low rainfall (<220 mm), high cumulative temperature (>3150 °C), and a high diurnal temperature range (>14 °C) promoted the accumulation of soluble solids in young fruits (9 %) at 120 days after flowering (DAF). Furthermore, low rainfall (<100 mm) favored the accumulation of soluble solids (1.5 %) during fruit expansion (195-225DAF). To quantify the relationship between fruit acidity and climate variables at 120 DAF, we developed a regression model, which was further validated by actual measurements and accurately predicted fruit acidity in 2023. Our findings have the potential to assist citrus growers in optimizing cultivation techniques for the production of high-quality citrus under increasingly variable climatic conditions.
摘要：
全球气候变化严重影响了各种作物的生产，特别是长期的水果植物，如柑橘。本研究分析了12个柑橘园的果实品质（CitrusSinensisL.Osbeckcv。冰唐）在云南亚热带地区，中国从2014年到2022年。结果表明，高降雨（>220mm）和低累积温度（<3150°C）促进了幼果可滴定酸度的增加（>1.8％）。随着果实进一步膨胀（水平直径从50毫米增加到65毫米），降雨过多（300-400毫米），较低的累积温度（<2400°C），和降低的昼夜温度范围（<10°C）阻碍了可滴定酸度的降低。相反，低降雨量（<220毫米），高累积温度（>3150°C），和较高的日温度范围（>14°C）促进了开花后120天（DAF）幼果中可溶性固形物的积累（9％）。此外，低降雨（<100毫米）有利于果实扩张（195-225DAF）过程中可溶性固形物（1.5％）的积累。为了量化120DAF下水果酸度与气候变量之间的关系，我们开发了一个回归模型，通过实际测量进一步验证，并准确预测了2023年的水果酸度。我们的发现有可能帮助柑橘种植者优化栽培技术，以在日益多变的气候条件下生产优质柑橘。
