Abstract：
Wheat grain production is a vital component of the food supply produced by smallholder farms but faces significant threats from climate change. This study evaluated eight environmental impacts of wheat production using life cycle assessment based on survey data from 274 households, then built random forest models with 21 input features to contrast the environmental responses of different farming practices across three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), spanning from 2024 to 2100. The results indicate significant environmental repercussions. Compared to the baseline period of 2018-2020, a similar upward trend in environmental impacts is observed, showing an average annual growth rate of 5.88 % (ranging from 0.45 to 18.56 %) under the sustainable pathway (SSP119) scenario; 5.90 % (ranging from 1.00 to 18.15 %) for the intermediate development pathway (SSP245); and 6.22 % (ranging from 1.16 to 17.74 %) under the rapid economic development pathway (SSP585). Variation in rainfall is identified as the primary driving factor of the increased environmental impacts, whereas its relationship with rising temperatures is not significant. The results suggest adopting farming practices as a vital strategy for smallholder farms to mitigate climate change impacts. Emphasizing appropriate fertilizer application and straw recycling can significantly reduce the environmental footprint of wheat production. Standardized fertilization could reduce the environmental impact index by 11.10 to 47.83 %, while straw recycling might decrease respiratory inorganics and photochemical oxidant formation potential by over 40 %. Combined, these approaches could lower the impact index by 12.31 to 63.38 %. The findings highlight the importance of adopting enhanced farming practices within smallholder farming systems in the context of climate change. SPOTLIGHTS.
摘要：
小麦谷物生产是小农农场粮食供应的重要组成部分，但面临着气候变化的重大威胁。本研究基于274户家庭的调查数据，使用生命周期评估方法评估了小麦生产的八种环境影响，然后构建了具有21个输入特征的随机森林模型，以对比三种共享的社会经济途径（SSP）中不同耕作方式的环境响应，从2024年到2100年。结果表明有显著的环境影响。与2018-2020年的基准期相比，观察到类似的环境影响上升趋势，在可持续路径（SSP119）情景下，年均增长率为5.88%（0.45至18.56%）；中间发展路径（SSP245）为5.90%（1.00至18.15%）；在快速经济发展路径（SSP585）下，年均增长率为6.22%（1.16至17.74%）。降雨的变化被认为是环境影响增加的主要驱动因素，而它与气温上升的关系并不显著。结果表明，采用耕作方式作为小农农场缓解气候变化影响的重要策略。强调适当施肥和秸秆循环利用可以显著降低小麦生产的环境足迹。标准化施肥可使环境影响指数降低11.10～47.83%,而秸秆回收可能会使呼吸无机物和光化学氧化剂的形成潜力降低40％以上。合并,这些方法可以将影响指数降低12.31%至63.38%。调查结果强调了在气候变化的背景下在小农耕作系统中采用强化耕作方法的重要性。斑点。
