PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Species are altering their ranges as a response to climate change, but the magnitude and direction of observed range shifts vary considerably among species. The ability to persist in current areas and colonize new areas plays a crucial role in determining which species will thrive and which decline as climate change progresses. Several studies have sought to identify characteristics, such as morphological and life-history traits, that could explain differences in the capability of species to shift their ranges together with a changing climate. These characteristics have explained variation in range shifts only sporadically, thus offering an uncertain tool for discerning responses among species. As long-term selection to past climates have shaped species\' tolerances, metrics describing species\' contemporary climatic niches may provide an alternative means for understanding responses to on-going climate change. Species that occur in a broader range of climatic conditions may hold greater tolerance to climatic variability and could therefore more readily maintain their historical ranges, while species with more narrow tolerances may only persist if they are able to shift in space to track their climatic niche. Here, we provide a first-filter test of the effect of climatic niche dimensions on shifts in the leading range edges in three relatively well-dispersing species groups. Based on the realized changes in the northern range edges of 383 moth, butterfly, and bird species across a boreal 1,100 km latitudinal gradient over c. 20 years, we show that while most morphological or life-history traits were not strongly connected with range shifts, moths and birds occupying a narrower thermal niche and butterflies occupying a broader moisture niche across their European distribution show stronger shifts towards the north. Our results indicate that the climatic niche may be important for predicting responses under climate change and as such warrants further investigation of potential mechanistic underpinnings.
摘要：
作为对气候变化的反应，物种正在改变它们的范围，但是观察到的范围变化的幅度和方向在物种之间差异很大。在当前地区持续存在和在新地区殖民的能力在决定哪些物种将随着气候变化的进展而茁壮成长和哪些物种将下降方面起着至关重要的作用。几项研究试图确定特征，如形态特征和生活史特征，这可以解释物种改变其范围的能力以及气候变化的差异。这些特征仅零星地解释了范围移位的变化，从而为辨别物种之间的反应提供了一个不确定的工具。由于对过去气候的长期选择决定了物种的容忍度，描述物种当代气候生态位的指标可能为理解对持续气候变化的反应提供了一种替代手段。在更广泛的气候条件下出现的物种可能对气候变化具有更大的耐受性，因此可以更容易地保持其历史范围，而具有更窄公差的物种只有在能够在太空中移动以跟踪其气候生态位的情况下才能持续存在。这里,我们提供了气候生态位尺寸对三个相对分散良好的物种组中前缘变化的影响的首次过滤测试。根据383蛾北部范围边缘的已实现变化，蝴蝶,和鸟类在大约20年的北方纬度梯度1100公里，我们表明，虽然大多数形态或生活史特征与范围变化没有很强的联系，飞蛾和鸟类占据较窄的热生态位，而蝴蝶在整个欧洲分布中占据更广泛的水分生态位，向北方的转移更强。我们的结果表明，气候生态位对于预测气候变化下的响应可能很重要，因此需要进一步研究潜在的机制基础。
