PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
The non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 may have affected the transmission of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). We aimed to assess the impact of the NPIs on HFMD in the high epidemic area of HFMD, Guangdong Province.
The data of HFMD cases, etiological information, and meteorological factors in Guangdong from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2021, were collected. Using a Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model integrated counterfactual framework, we assessed the effect of NPIs on HFMD by different intervention periods, populations (gender, age, occupation), and cities. We further explored the correlation between the reduction of HFMD and socioeconomic factors in 21 cities.
A total of 351,217 HFMD cases were reported and 455,327 cases were averted in Guangdong Province during 2020-2021 with a reduction of 84.94% (95%CI: 81.63-87.22%) in 2020 and 29.49% (95%CI: 15.26-39.54%) in 2021. The impact of NPIs on HFMD differed by age and gender. The effects of NPIs were more remarkable for children aged 0-2 years and scattered children. We found that the relative reductions in 21 cities were related to the composition ratio of children and COVID-19 incidence.
The reduction of HFMD incidence was significantly associated with COVID-19 NPIs, and school closure was an effective intervention to prevent HFMD outbreaks. Our findings will contribute to the development of HFMD prevention and control measures.
The data of HFMD cases, etiological information, and meteorological factors in Guangdong from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2021, were collected. Using a Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model integrated counterfactual framework, we assessed the effect of NPIs on HFMD by different intervention periods, populations (gender, age, occupation), and cities. We further explored the correlation between the reduction of HFMD and socioeconomic factors in 21 cities.
A total of 351,217 HFMD cases were reported and 455,327 cases were averted in Guangdong Province during 2020-2021 with a reduction of 84.94% (95%CI: 81.63-87.22%) in 2020 and 29.49% (95%CI: 15.26-39.54%) in 2021. The impact of NPIs on HFMD differed by age and gender. The effects of NPIs were more remarkable for children aged 0-2 years and scattered children. We found that the relative reductions in 21 cities were related to the composition ratio of children and COVID-19 incidence.
The reduction of HFMD incidence was significantly associated with COVID-19 NPIs, and school closure was an effective intervention to prevent HFMD outbreaks. Our findings will contribute to the development of HFMD prevention and control measures.
摘要：
■针对COVID-19的非药物干预措施（NPI）可能影响了手的传播，口蹄疫（HFMD）。我们旨在评估NPI对手足口病高流行地区手足口病的影响，广东省。
■手足口病病例数据，病因学信息，收集了2012年1月1日至2021年12月31日广东省的气象因子。使用贝叶斯结构时间序列(BSTS)模型集成的反事实框架，我们评估了不同干预时期NPI对手足口病的影响，人口(性别，年龄,职业),和城市。我们进一步探讨了21个城市手足口病减少与社会经济因素之间的相关性。
■2020-2021年期间，广东省共报告了351,217例手足口病病例，避免了455,327例病例，2020年减少了84.94％（95CI：81.63-87.22％），2021年减少了29.49％（95CI：15.26-39.54％）。NPI对HFMD的影响因年龄和性别而异。NPI对0-2岁儿童和散居儿童的影响更为明显。我们发现，21个城市的相对减少与儿童的构成比和COVID-19发病率有关。
■手足口病发病率的降低与COVID-19NPI显著相关，关闭学校是预防手足口病爆发的有效干预措施。我们的研究结果将有助于制定手足口病的预防和控制措施。
■手足口病病例数据，病因学信息，收集了2012年1月1日至2021年12月31日广东省的气象因子。使用贝叶斯结构时间序列(BSTS)模型集成的反事实框架，我们评估了不同干预时期NPI对手足口病的影响，人口(性别，年龄,职业),和城市。我们进一步探讨了21个城市手足口病减少与社会经济因素之间的相关性。
■2020-2021年期间，广东省共报告了351,217例手足口病病例，避免了455,327例病例，2020年减少了84.94％（95CI：81.63-87.22％），2021年减少了29.49％（95CI：15.26-39.54％）。NPI对HFMD的影响因年龄和性别而异。NPI对0-2岁儿童和散居儿童的影响更为明显。我们发现，21个城市的相对减少与儿童的构成比和COVID-19发病率有关。
■手足口病发病率的降低与COVID-19NPI显著相关，关闭学校是预防手足口病爆发的有效干预措施。我们的研究结果将有助于制定手足口病的预防和控制措施。
