Abstract：
To investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the strategic decisionmaking of leaders with respect to biological weapons, this study employed a prospective simulation technique called Asynchronous Strategic Dynamics Red Teaming. Using an immersive, multimedia simulation conducted remotely and asynchronously, the effort engaged 240 carefully selected and curated expert participants in either biological weapons or the countries of interest (as well as 60 naïve participants). Across our sample of 30 countries, simulated interest in pursuing some type of biological weapons program (defensive or offensive) remained low to moderate. While such interest increased after the simulated onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, it was limited overall, with only a handful of states showing salient increases in offensive biological weapon interest. When directly referencing why their countries might have changed their post-COVID-19 interest in biological weapons, the most commonly cited reasons were: (1) COVID-19 demonstrated the power of biological weapons to disrupt societies and cause large-scale economic harm, and (2) the pandemic revealed either the state\'s own or its rivals\' vulnerability to diseases like COVID-19, as well as an inability to efficiently respond and contain such diseases. In sum, despite a global pandemic with massive consequences, the simulation revealed that most states are not likely to dramatically change their strategic posture regarding pursuit of offensive biological weapons.
摘要：
调查COVID-19大流行对领导人在生物武器方面的战略决策的影响，这项研究采用了一种称为异步战略动力学红色团队的前瞻性模拟技术。使用身临其境的，远程和异步进行的多媒体模拟，这项工作吸引了240名经过精心挑选和策划的生物武器或感兴趣国家的专家参与者(以及60名天真参与者)。在我们30个国家的样本中，对追求某种类型的生物武器计划（防御性或进攻性）的模拟兴趣仍然低至中等。虽然在COVID-19大流行的模拟发作后，这种兴趣增加了，总的来说是有限的，只有少数几个州对进攻性生物武器的兴趣显着增加。当直接提到为什么他们的国家可能改变了他们在新冠肺炎后对生物武器的兴趣时，最常见的原因是:(1)COVID-19证明了生物武器扰乱社会并造成大规模经济损害的力量，（2）大流行揭示了该州自己或其竞争对手对COVID-19等疾病的脆弱性，以及无法有效应对和遏制此类疾病。总之,尽管全球大流行带来了巨大的后果，模拟显示，大多数州不太可能大幅改变其追求进攻性生物武器的战略态势。
