Abstract：
Wetlands serve many functions, including conserving water, providing habitats for animals and plants, and regulating climate change. Their unique ecological effects on the natural environment are indispensable in the whole ecosystem. Dianchi Lake Basin is located in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, China, and mainly in Kunming. It is a typical plateau urban wetland area. Based on spatio-temporal hotspot mining, spatio-temporal geographically weighted regression, and adaptive multidimensional grey prediction, we conducted correlation analyses of the wetland changes in Dianchi Lake Basin from 1993 to 2020 under the influence of human activities and natural conditions. The results show that (1) the active wetland change zone in Dianchi Lake Basin is mainly located around Dianchi Lake, and (2) the wetlands in some areas on the north and south of Dianchi Lake declined in the early 21st century, but under the protection policy in recent years, the wetlands in these areas gradually recovered. Meanwhile, the wetlands in most areas around Dianchi Lake showed a significant growth trend from 2018 to 2020. The results suggest that the wetland change in Dianchi Lake Basin is mainly related to the urbanization of Kunming, and it can be divided into five regions (strong negative correlation, weak negative correlation, weak correlation, weak positive correlation, and strong positive correlation) according to the different correlation of human activity intensity, among which the main factors affected by nature are different, but they are all related to temperature. This study shows that, although wetlands in plateau cities can be properly restored under proper protection, wetland protection should be kept in step with the development of plateau cities to support sustainable urban development and carbon neutrality.
摘要：
湿地有很多功能，包括节约用水,为动植物提供栖息地，调节气候变化。它们对自然环境的独特生态效应在整个生态系统中不可或缺。滇池流域位于云贵高原,中国,主要在昆明。是典型的高原城市湿地区。基于时空热点挖掘，时空地理加权回归，和自适应多维灰色预测，在人类活动和自然条件的影响下，对滇池流域1993-2020年湿地变化进行了相关性分析。结果表明:(1)滇池流域湿地活动变化带主要位于滇池周边,（2）21世纪初，滇池南北部分地区的湿地减少，但是在近年来的保护政策下，这些地区的湿地逐渐恢复。同时,2018-2020年滇池周边大部分地区湿地呈显著增长趋势。结果表明,滇池流域湿地变化主要与昆明城市化进程有关,它可以分为五个区域(强负相关，弱负相关，弱相关性，弱正相关，和强正相关)根据人类活动强度的不同相关性，其中受自然影响的主要因素不同，但它们都与温度有关。这项研究表明,尽管在适当的保护下，高原城市的湿地可以适当恢复，湿地保护应与高原城市的发展保持同步，以支持城市可持续发展和碳中和。
